Expert judgments calibration and combination for assessment of river levee failure probability

Hathout, Michel; Vuillet, Marc; Carvajal, Claudio; Peyras, Laurent; Diab, Youssef

doi:10.1016/j.ress.2019.03.019

Cited by 12 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 22 publications

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“…Expert evaluation as a method is widely used in a range of studies, particularly in environmental sciences (e.g. Hathout et al 2019;Chrysafi et al 2019), sustainability assessment (e.g. Seppälä et al 2017) and future studies (e.g.…”

Section: Context Methods and Materialsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Untangling the interactions of sustainability targets: synergies and trade-offs in the Northern European context

Lyytimäki

Lonkila

Furman

et al. 2020

Environ Dev Sustain

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Agenda 2030 and sustainable development goals (SDG) are key formulations of sustainability policies, consisting of 17 general-level goals and 169 more detailed targets. The target setting is based on tedious international policy negotiations and compromises addressing myriad of different and sometimes incompatible interests. Identification of key trade-offs and synergies between the targets can help the efficient implementation of SDGs by improving the opportunities to focus policy attention and actions on the most relevant issues. This article focuses on trade-offs and synergies of nationally relevant targets in the context of an industrialised and affluent nation state. Results from a cross-matrix examination of targets in Finland show that most of the selected targets are characterised by synergistic interactions with other nationally relevant targets. However, policies aimed at advancing economic growth and the use of renewable energy risk a number of serious trade-offs. Methodological advances are required to make the assessment of interactions more transparent and reliable, manageable within the limited resources and capable of producing results relevant to decision-making. A recommendation for the use of cross-matrix examination as a tool of collaborative ex ante sustainability assessment is put forward, also acknowledging the risk of "paralysis by analysis" related to the wide-ranging SDG framework.

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Section: Context Methods and Materialsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Untangling the interactions of sustainability targets: synergies and trade-offs in the Northern European context

Lyytimäki

Lonkila

Furman

et al. 2020

Environ Dev Sustain

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Expert judgements are often used, as an alternative to statistical data, to assess the state probabilities under such scenarios. Typical procedures of reliability assessment using expert judgements contains three steps: elicitation of expert judgements, combination of expert judgements, and calibration of expert judgements [8]. The latter two steps are oftentimes carried out in an interactive manner in order to achieve a rational consensus among a group of experts on the elicited information.…”

Section: Ij Jd MMmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Calibration of expert judgments is not trivial as decision makers should decide which one (ones) of the expert judgement(s) need to be calibrated and to what extent [8]. To facilitate such choices, it is of great significance to quantitatively measure and visualize the conflict and/or consistency among experts' judgements, as well as the informativeness of each expert judgment with respect to estimating the system reliability.…”

Section: Ij Jd MMmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Measuring Conflicts of Multisource Imprecise Information in Multistate System Reliability Assessment

et al. 2022

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“…Thus, expert judgments are valuable to assess the representativeness of results. The selection, evaluation and aggregation of such judgments, e.g., [55] could also help constrain the estimation of runout.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Operational Estimation of Landslide Runout: Comparison of Empirical and Numerical Methods

et al. 2020

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A key point of landslide hazard assessment is the estimation of their runout. Empirical relations linking angle of reach to volume can be used relatively easily, but they are generally associated with large uncertainties as they do not consider the topographic specificity of a given study site. On the contrary, numerical simulations provide more detailed results on the deposits morphology, but their rheological parameters can be difficult to constrain. Simulating all possible values can be time consuming and incompatible with operational requirements of rapid estimations. We propose and compare three operational methods to derive scaling power laws relating the landslide travel distance to the destabilized volume. The first one relies only on empirical relations, the second one on numerical simulations with back-analysis, and the third one combines both approaches. Their efficiency is tested on three case studies: the Samperre cliff collapses in Martinique, Lesser Antilles (0.5 to 4×106 m3), the Frank Slide rock avalanche (36×106 m3) and the Samperre cliff collapses in Martinique, Lesser Antilles (0.5 to 4×106 m3) the Fei Tsui debris slide in Hong Kong (0.014×106 m3). Purely numerical estimations yield the smallest uncertainty, but the uncertainty on rheological parameters is difficult to quantify. Combining numerical and empirical approaches allows to reduce the uncertainty of estimation by up to 50%, in comparison to purely empirical estimations. However, it may also induces a bias in the estimation, though observations always lie in the 95% prediction intervals. We also show that empirical estimations fail to model properly the dependence between volume and travel distance, particularly for small landslides (<20,000 <0.02×106 m3).

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Expert judgments calibration and combination for assessment of river levee failure probability

Cited by 12 publications

References 22 publications

Untangling the interactions of sustainability targets: synergies and trade-offs in the Northern European context

Untangling the interactions of sustainability targets: synergies and trade-offs in the Northern European context

Measuring Conflicts of Multisource Imprecise Information in Multistate System Reliability Assessment

Operational Estimation of Landslide Runout: Comparison of Empirical and Numerical Methods

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