Explaining Global Trends in Cattle Population Changes Between 1961 and 2020 Directly Affecting Methane Emissions

Abstract

Methane (CH4) emissions from agricultural sources make a significant contribution to the total anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions that contribute to climate change. According to the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines for calculating greenhouse gas emissions, agriculture is responsible for approximately 10% of total CH4 emissions from anthropogenic sources. CH4 is mainly emitted from livestock farming, especially from cattle production during enteric fermentation and from manure. The article describes the results of multivariate statistical analyzes carried out on data collected in 1961–2020 based on the data for 30 countries with the largest cattle population. The trends of temporal changes in cattle population were evaluated and groups of countries with similar patterns in the study period were distinguished. Variables which are correlated with changes in the number of cattle were indicated. Forecasts of cattle population and CH4 emission related to cattle for the coming years are presented.