Exploring scientific information for policy making under deep uncertainty

Forni, L.; Galaitsi, Stephanie; Mehta, Vishal K.; Escobar, Marisa; Purkey, David; Depsky, Nicholas; Lima, Nilo

doi:10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.09.021

Cited by 19 publications

(13 citation statements)

References 66 publications

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“…It is in the development of this shared conceptual model that advanced data exploration and visualization tools proved particularly useful. Forni et al [2016] reports on how advanced visualization was used in Bolivia to guide the RDS participants in the construction of a shared conceptual model and in the extraction of shared insights and knowledge from the ensemble of model output. In 2012, in order to build trust and resolve the conflict between the stakeholders in La Paz and in rural areas to the north of El Alto, the Ministry of the Environment and Water convened a focal group of key stakeholders and decision makers to plan for new water management investments in the region.…”

Section: Implementing the Rds Practice In The Andesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The initial problem formulation contained two additional dimensions of uncertainty associated with hydropower relicensing and land use change, but these were eliminated from consideration due to the discovery of their relatively small impact, relative to climate change and the eventual Delta regulatory regime, on the vulnerability of the system. As in the case of Bolivia, a widely available water resource systems model was used as the primary analytical engine to produce values for the metrics of performance and innovative data visualization techniques [42] were used to create a shared conceptual model of the results of the ensemble analysis. The RDS analysis showed that the Yuba system is highly vulnerable in a drought scenario, combined with a new 50% of full natural flow Delta regulatory regime.…”

Section: Implementing the Rds Practice In Californiamentioning

confidence: 99%

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A Philosophical Justification for a Novel Analysis-Supported, Stakeholder-Driven Participatory Process for Water Resources Planning and Decision Making

Purkey

Arias

Mehta

et al. 2018

Water

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Two trends currently shape water resources planning and decision making: reliance on participatory stakeholder processes to evaluate water management options; and growing recognition that deterministic approaches to the evaluation of options may not be appropriate. These trends pose questions regarding the proper role of information, analysis, and expertise in the inherently social and political process of negotiating agreements and implementing interventions in the water sector. The question of how one might discover the best option in the face of deep uncertainty is compelling. The question of whether the best option even exists to be discovered is more vexing. While such existential questions are not common in the water management community, they are not new to political theory. This paper explores early classical writing related to issues of knowledge and governance as captured in the work of Plato and Aristotle; and then attempts to place a novel, analysis-supported, stakeholder-driven water resources planning and decision making practice within this philosophical discourse, making reference to current decision theory. Examples from the Andes and California, where this practice has been used to structure participation by key stakeholders in water management planning and decision-making, argue that when a sufficiently diverse group of stakeholders is engaged in the decision making process expecting the discovery of the perfect option may not be warranted. Simply discovering a consensus option may be more realistic. The argument touches upon the diversity of preferences, model credibility and the visualization of model output required to explore the implications of various management options across a broad range of inherently unknowable future conditions.

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Section: Implementing the Rds Practice In The Andesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Implementing the Rds Practice In Californiamentioning

confidence: 99%

A Philosophical Justification for a Novel Analysis-Supported, Stakeholder-Driven Participatory Process for Water Resources Planning and Decision Making

Purkey

Arias

Mehta

et al. 2018

Water

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“…2) effectively in various water resources planning contexts, in both single-and multi-stakeholder situations. Recent examples of its application include supporting integrated regional water management (IRWM) planning in Yuba County, California (Forni et al 2016), urban water planning in Bolivia (Forni et al 2016), water and power sector planning in seven African river basins (Cervigni et al 2015), and river basin planning in Colombia and Peru (Bresney et al 2017).…”

Section: System Evalutionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How can we support the development of robust groundwater sustainability plans?

Mehta¹,

Young²,

Bresney³

et al. 2018

Calif Agr

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roundwater is an important water supply source in California. On average, it provides 38% of California's total water supply (DWR 2015) and supports a $46 billion agricultural economy (USDA 2015). While the extent of groundwater use varies across the state, overall it has been increasing, from an estimated 9 million acre-feet in 1947 to 20.9 million acre-feet per year from 2005 to 2009 (DWR 2015). Groundwater contributes to farmers' economic stability by providing a buffer to water supply variability. However, over-reliance on groundwater has led to overdraft, which threatens its long-term sustainability. Until recently, groundwater use in California was mainly unregulated by the state and left largely to local management. With a few exceptions in adjudicated basins, groundwater could be pumped without restriction for beneficial use on the overlying land area. This has led to a "tragedy of the commons" (Hardin 1968), with individual groundwater pumpers rationally overusing the shared resource. RESEARCH ARTICLE How can we support the development of robust groundwater sustainability plans? A decision support process helped stakeholders in Yolo County understand the vulnerabilities of their groundwater situation and evaluate strategies to overcome them.

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“…También fue encontrada [37] la fuerte influencia que tiene la precipitación sobre la respuesta hidrológica de la cuenca del río Aipe. Estos resultados son consistentes con otros estudios realizados en condiciones similares [34,35,36,64]. De acuerdo con los resultados encontrados, la oferta hídrica futura de la cuenca del río Aipe será menor que la actual (Tabla 4).…”

Section: Simulación De La Oferta Hídrica Futura Para Tres Escenarios unclassified

“…Retomando la importancia estratégica del departamento Huila como una fábrica de agua en Colombia (alto Magdalena) a nivel regional, se han realizado varios estudios para caracterizar el comportamiento hidrológico de la región. Empezando por un estudio de inundación en la cuenca del río Las Ceibas [34], otro del impacto potencial del cambio climático sobre la cuenca del río Suaza [35], uno sobre modelación hidrológica del alto Magdalena [36], y por último, un modelo para la planificación integral del recurso hídrico en la cuenca hidrográfica del río Aipe [37]. Además, dada la importancia del cambio climático, se formuló un plan de cambio climático "Huila 2050" [38]; este proyecto permitió priorizar acciones con las autoridades públicas y privadas, estimar las emisiones de gases con efecto invernadero, y proyectar la vulnerabilidad climática.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Simulación hidrológica de los impactos potenciales del cambio climático en la cuenca hidrográfica del río Aipe, en Huila, Colombia

Romero-Cuéllar

Buitrago-Vargas

Quintero-Ruiz

et al. 2018

Ribagua

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La dinámica de un mundo global y el hombre como nueva fuerza geológica plantean la necesidad de tomar decisiones robustas, diseñar estrategias de manejo y de adaptarse al cambio climático. Este estudio investiga la respuesta hidrológica de la cuenca hidrográfica del río Aipe (688.9 km 2), en Huila, Colombia, en acorde con los escenarios de cambio climático desde 2011 a 2040. El modelo hidrológico abcd de Thomas (4 parámetros) fue calibrado y validado comparando el caudal simulado y lo observado en el punto de cierre de la cuenca (en la estación Puente Carretera), usando series históricas mensuales (1992-2012). Realizamos la evaluación de la sensibilidad e identificabilidad de los parámetros con la herramienta 'Monte Carlo Analysis Toolbox' (MCAT). Los resultados muestran que el modelo es capaz de representar adecuadamente los caudales mensuales observados en el punto de desagüe de la cuenca, al encontrarse un índice de eficiencia de Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE) de 0,89. Los parámetros más influyentes son a (almacenamiento del agua en el suelo) y c (aporte al acuífero). Con respecto a la simulación de los escenarios, la línea base (1992-2012) estimó un caudal medio de 15,44 m 3 s-1 ; el escenario de extrapolación de tendencias estimó un caudal de 13,79 m 3 s-1 (-10,64%); el escenario de ensamble multi-modelo de 9,34 m 3 s-1 (-39,47%) y el escenario A2 de 5,74 m 3 s-1 (-62,60%). Proponemos una batería de medidas de adaptación al cambio climático que buscan la gestión integral del recurso hídrico. Modelling the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology of the Aipe river basin in Huila, Colombia

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Exploring scientific information for policy making under deep uncertainty

Cited by 19 publications

References 66 publications

A Philosophical Justification for a Novel Analysis-Supported, Stakeholder-Driven Participatory Process for Water Resources Planning and Decision Making

A Philosophical Justification for a Novel Analysis-Supported, Stakeholder-Driven Participatory Process for Water Resources Planning and Decision Making

How can we support the development of robust groundwater sustainability plans?

Simulación hidrológica de los impactos potenciales del cambio climático en la cuenca hidrográfica del río Aipe, en Huila, Colombia

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