Exploring social structures and agency in backcasting studies for sustainable development

Wangel, Josefin

doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2011.03.007

Cited by 99 publications

(64 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…In this study, as indicated in the last step of scenario building, we will primarily focus on detecting the feasibility of that future under present socio-economic and technological conditions, and therefore revealing structural obstacles and institutional gaps that may prevent the attainment of the desired future images. It is the so-called pathway-oriented back-casting which emphasizes on exploring the gaps between the sustainable image of the future and today [19]. In addition, there is an increasing call for including the analysis of social structures and conditions in back-casting studies for sustainable development [19,20].…”

Section: Back-casting Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Two Contrasting Scenarios for a Zero-Emission Future in a High-Consumption Society

et al. 2016

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Abstract:The Paris agreement on climate took effect on 4 November 2016. The agreement plans on holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 • C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5 • C above pre-industrial levels. This paper compares an ecological modernisation (EM) development path with a degrowth development path, using urban and land-use planning impact on housing and transportation as cases. The two positions (EM and degrowth) agree on the need for a fundamental reduction in climate gases but disagree on which strategies should be pursued. EM transitions do not challenge the values associated with the capitalistic market economy and believe that policies, such as the right-price signals, should nudge producers and consumers in an environmentally benign direction. Conversely, degrowth rejects the EM belief in green growth, and holds that it will not be possible to decouple the economy from environmental loads to the necessary extent if the economy keeps growing. We conclude that we need a fundamental transformational change in society, i.e., a steering away from the growth ideology, and pursue policies that introduce maximum housing standards and limit mobility to succeed with the goals of the Paris agreement.

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Section: Back-casting Analysismentioning

confidence: 99%

Two Contrasting Scenarios for a Zero-Emission Future in a High-Consumption Society

et al. 2016

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“…Backcasting is explicitly normative, growing out of discontent with forecasting based on trend extrapolation, with its assumptions of on-going increase in demand and (in the early days of energy modelling) a disregard for renewable energy technologies and energy conservation [34]. This is not to say that a backcasting approach cannot include the use of predictive techniques during a process of determining options by which a desired end-point might be achieved [35]. The overall approach of backcasting, though, remains fundamentally different in its orientation from forecasting.…”

Section: Backcastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Scaffolding, software and scenarios: Applying Bruner's learning theory to energy scenario development with the public

Upham

Carney

Klapper

2014

Technological Forecasting and Social Change

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While there is a literature on public and stakeholder engagement in environmental research and scenario development, less attention has been given to the learning processes that take place in these contexts. We present public perceptions of emissions contraction scenarios for the UK city of Manchester and discuss this in terms of learning theory developed by Lev Vygotsky and Jerome Bruner. A key theme of this is the combination of three learning tools of use in social and individual learning: scaffolding techniques, scenario building and backcasting. We discuss the ways in which our structured scenario-building process, employing Greenhouse Gas Regional Inventory Protocol (GRIP) backcasting software, bring together these components. Following Bruner, learners are treated as scientific reasoners, but with the acknowledgement that there are also important affective and other dimensions to learning. Highlights We reflect on the learning processes of energy scenario participants  GRIP energy-emissions backcasting software was used with 4 groups of the public  The process required envisaging strong CO 2 reduction scenarios for a city region  Key to the theory is Vygotsky's concept of scaffolding, developed by Bruner AbstractWhile there is a literature on public and stakeholder engagement in environmental research and scenario development, less attention has been given to the learning processes that take place in these contexts. We present public perceptions of emissions contraction scenarios for the UK city of Manchester and discuss this in terms of learning theory developed by Lev Vygotsky and Jerome Bruner. A key theme of this is the combination of three learning tools of use in social and individual learning: scaffolding techniques, scenario building and backcasting. We discuss the ways in which our structured scenario-building process, employing Greenhouse Gas Regional Inventory Protocol (GRIP) backcasting software, bring together these components. Following Bruner, learners are treated as scientific reasoners, but with the acknowledgement that there are also important affective and other dimensions to learning.

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“…There are at least four different types of backcasting [15]. The process of the target-orientated backcasting is organized around a specific goal like a given percentage of CO 2 reduction or energy-conservation.…”

Section: Back From the Future: Backcasting For Sustainable Employmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This version emphasizes positive influences of the process on the participants themselves. So effects such as empowerment, social learning and community development are considered just as important, if not more, than other more tangible outcomes of the process ( [15], p. 874).…”

Section: Back From the Future: Backcasting For Sustainable Employmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Backcasting for Sustainable Employment: A Hungarian Experience

et al. 2013

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Sustainability and employment are terms seldom used together. Especially when defining sustainability in the stricter sense of the word, delineating a world where strong sustainability is the norm, it is problematic to deduct which elements may compose sustainable employment. In the relevant discourse, two distinct directions can be identified. Ecological modernization promises -quick fixes‖ to employment problems while reducing environmentally harmful economic activities without initiating major changes either in our ways of thinking or in our way of living. At the same time, the radical change paradigm disposes of the concepts of the free market society and believes that new -great transformations‖ are unavoidable, whereby values must change just as much as institutions. Yet, how far have these normative theoretical approaches penetrated our everyday thinking? The paper builds upon the experience of a backcasting project on sustainable employment conducted in Hungary in 2012 and early 2013 and suggests that when people are given the chance to leave the path dependencies of today behind and imagine a sustainable future, their normative visions provide us with invaluable insight as to what may constitute sustainable employment. It also contributes towards our understanding of which policy tools lead us towards a more sustainable world of work in particular and a more sustainable society in general.

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Exploring social structures and agency in backcasting studies for sustainable development

Cited by 99 publications

References 45 publications

Two Contrasting Scenarios for a Zero-Emission Future in a High-Consumption Society

Two Contrasting Scenarios for a Zero-Emission Future in a High-Consumption Society

Scaffolding, software and scenarios: Applying Bruner's learning theory to energy scenario development with the public

Backcasting for Sustainable Employment: A Hungarian Experience

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