Exploring the growth patterns of medical demand for eye care: a longitudinal hospital-level study over 10 years in China

Yuan, Meng; Chen, Wenben; Wang, Ting; Song, Yiyan; Chen, Chuan; Yang, Yahan; Liu, Yizhi; Li, Yanzhi; Lin, Haotian

doi:10.21037/atm-20-2939

Cited by 11 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 18 publications

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“…As the percentage of prescriptions containing ocular topical anti-infectives decreased, the increased number of prescriptions of topical anti-infectives may be due to increased demand and supply of ocular healthcare in China [ 11 ]. The reason for this decline may be the antimicrobial stewardship program in the ophthalmology departments.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in Outpatient Prescribing Patterns for Ocular Topical Anti-Infectives in Six Major Areas of China, 2013–2019

Zhu

Jin

et al. 2021

Antibiotics

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Topical anti-infectives are important in the management of ocular infections, but little is known about their current status and trends in their use in China. Thus, we carried out a prescription-based, cross-sectional study using the database of Hospital Prescription Analysis Projection of China, and aimed to analyze the trend in the use of ocular topical anti-infectives for outpatients of the ophthalmology department from 2013 to 2019. A total of 2,341,719 prescriptions from 61 hospitals located in six major areas written by ophthalmologists for outpatients were identified, and 1,002,254 of the prescriptions contained at least one anti-infective. The yearly anti-infective prescriptions increased continuously from 126,828 prescriptions in 2013 to 163,434 prescriptions in 2019. The cost also increased from 4,503,711 Chinese Yuan (CNY) in 2013 to CNY 5,860,945 in 2019. However, the use rate of anti-infectives decreased slightly from 46.5% in 2013 to 41.1% in 2019. Patients aged between 19 and 45 years old had the highest anti-infective use rate. Levofloxacin was the most frequently used anti-infective and kept on increasing among all age groups, occupying 67.1% of the total cost at the end of the study. Tobramycin was more frequently used in pediatric patients than in adults, but the use still decreased. Ganciclovir was the preferred anti-viral drug over acyclovir. In conclusion, the prescriptions and cost of ocular topical anti-infectives for outpatients both increased progressively. The increasingly widespread use of levofloxacin raised concerns regarding safety in pediatrics and resistance development. The observed trends can lead to the more efficient management of ocular anti-topical anti-infectives in China.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Trends in Outpatient Prescribing Patterns for Ocular Topical Anti-Infectives in Six Major Areas of China, 2013–2019

Zhu

Jin

et al. 2021

Antibiotics

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“…They identified that ARIMA (0,0,1) was the best fit and yielded the MAPE of 8.91% [ 12 ]. A group in China conducted an observational study which analyzed patient’s visits across 10 years at an eyecare facility [ 13 ]. They observed a continuous increase in patient visits over the years leading to an increased demand and hence more burden on the eyecare system.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecast of Outpatient Visits to a Tertiary Eyecare Network in India Using the EyeSmart Electronic Medical Record System

et al. 2021

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India is home to 1.3 billion people. The geography and the magnitude of the population present unique challenges in the delivery of healthcare services. The implementation of electronic health records and tools for conducting predictive modeling enables opportunities to explore time series data like patient inflow to the hospital. This study aims to analyze expected outpatient visits to the tertiary eyecare network in India using datasets from a domestically developed electronic medical record system (eyeSmart™) implemented across a large multitier ophthalmology network in India. Demographic information of 3,384,157 patient visits was obtained from eyeSmart EMR from August 2010 to December 2017 across the L.V. Prasad Eye Institute network. Age, gender, date of visit and time status of the patients were selected for analysis. The datapoints for each parameter from the patient visits were modeled using the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) modeling. SARIMA (0,0,1)(0,1,7)7 provided the best fit for predicting total outpatient visits. This study describes the prediction method of forecasting outpatient visits to a large eyecare network in India. The results of our model hold the potential to be used to support the decisions of resource planning in the delivery of eyecare services to patients.

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“…However, the demand for eye care has imposed a heavy burden on this system. Previous studies have shown the increasing magnitude of medical demand, and the growth patterns of medical demand have critical management implications for optimizing medical supply and improving the safety and quality of medical care [ 2 ]. A study performed from 1995 to 2017 showed that the national density of ophthalmologists in the United States (US) has decreased from 6.30 to 5.68 ophthalmologists per 100,000 people, and the workforce is in the older age group [ 3 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ophthalmology workforce over a decade in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: demographics, distribution, and future challenges

Aldebasi,

Alhejji,

Bukhari

et al. 2024

Hum Resour Health

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Background The ophthalmology workforce is an integral component of any health care system. However, the demand for eye care has imposed a heavy burden on this system. Hence, this study aimed to estimate the trends, demographic characteristics, distribution, and variation between Saudi and non-Saudi ophthalmologists and the future challenges of the ophthalmology workforce in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA). Methods This study was conducted in the KSA and included ophthalmologists practicing from 2010 to 2023. From the Saudi Commission for Health Specialties, we obtained the number, gender, nationality, and rank of ophthalmologists. The geographic distribution of ophthalmologists in the KSA was obtained from the Ministry of Health Statistical Yearbook 2021. Results As of January 2023, the KSA had a total of 2608 registered ophthalmologists, with approximately 81.06 ophthalmologists per 1,000,000 people. Only 38% of all ophthalmologists in the country were Saudis. The percentage of Saudi female graduates increased from 13.3% to 37.2% over 12 years [Sen’s estimator of slope for median increase per year = 1.33 (95% CI 1.22–1.57) graduates; trend test P < 0.001). Additionally, we found that the geographic distribution of ophthalmologists varied (test for homogeneity of rates, P < 0.0001), with the larger regions having a higher concentration of ophthalmologists than the smaller regions (75.6 in Riyadh versus 42.8 in Jazan per 1,000,000 people). However, the World Health Organization's target for the ophthalmologist-to-population ratio has been achieved in all 13 health regions of KSA. Conclusion The recommended ophthalmologist-to-population ratio has been achieved in the KSA, and the number of Saudi ophthalmologists has almost doubled over the past 8 years. However, the majority of ophthalmologists are still non-Saudi, as Saudi ophthalmologists constitute approximately one-third of the ophthalmology workforce in the KSA. The geographical distribution of ophthalmologists varies, which might affect access to care in peripheral regions. In response to the growing demand for eye care in the KSA, several more effective measures might need to be considered.

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Exploring the growth patterns of medical demand for eye care: a longitudinal hospital-level study over 10 years in China

Cited by 11 publications

References 18 publications

Trends in Outpatient Prescribing Patterns for Ocular Topical Anti-Infectives in Six Major Areas of China, 2013–2019

Trends in Outpatient Prescribing Patterns for Ocular Topical Anti-Infectives in Six Major Areas of China, 2013–2019

Forecast of Outpatient Visits to a Tertiary Eyecare Network in India Using the EyeSmart Electronic Medical Record System

Ophthalmology workforce over a decade in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia: demographics, distribution, and future challenges

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