Exploring the population dynamics of waterfowl hunters using a mark‐recapture approach

Abstract

The number of waterfowl hunters in the United States has declined since the 1980s despite relatively abundant waterfowl populations and liberal hunting regulations. Programs focused on recruiting, retaining, and reactivating (R3) waterfowl hunters have become important to avoid further losses in traditional revenue for habitat management and protection and political support for waterfowl conservation and management. We focus on 4 waterfowl hunter population vital rates (i.e., recruitment rate, retention probability, license purchase probability, realized population growth rate), which can be used to improve the effectiveness of waterfowl hunter R3 activities and initiatives by providing a deeper understanding of waterfowl hunter population dynamics to determine who programs should target, where programs should be targeted, and finally the evaluation of programs. To do so, we analyzed Nebraska state electronic license data from 2012–2019 using Pradel survival and recruitment models in a mark‐recapture framework. Female waterfowl hunter recruitment was higher than males; however, retention and license purchase probabilities were lower. Recruitment was highest in younger generations and retention highest in older generations. License purchase probabilities were highest among those in the oldest and youngest generations. The availability of hunting opportunity increased license purchase probabilities but had a minimal influence on retention and no association with recruitment. There were weak relationships between rurality and recruitment, and retention and license purchase probabilities. Finally, belonging to Ducks Unlimited was positively associated with higher license purchase and retention probabilities. Targeting an increase in license purchase probability by promoting social support for hunters through conservation organization membership should be a focus of waterfowl hunter R3 efforts to have the greatest influence on increasing waterfowl hunter participation.