Exploring trophic interactions and cascades in the Baltic Sea using a complex end-to-end ecosystem model with extensive food web integration

Bossier, Sieme; Nielsen, J. Rasmus; Neuenfeldt, Stefan

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109281

Cited by 16 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 39 publications

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“…Thus, the decreased predation by both the polychaete and the crab on S. plana led to an increase in the biomass of the clam in the 4-NP, BPA and mixed ECs scenarios. In line with this, it has been shown that disturbances in trophic levels may lead to trophic cascades, which can affect and control entire marine ecosystems [74].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 74%

Prioritizing the Effects of Emerging Contaminants on Estuarine Production under Global Warming Scenarios

Martins

Soares

Neuparth

et al. 2022

Toxics

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Due to non-linear interactions, the effects of contaminant mixtures on aquatic ecosystems are difficult to assess, especially under temperature rise that will likely exacerbate the complexity of the responses. Yet, under the current climatic crisis, assessing the effects of water contaminants and temperature is paramount to understanding the biological impacts of mixtures of stressors on aquatic ecosystems. Here, we use an ecosystem model followed by global sensitivity analysis (GSA) to prioritize the effects of four single emerging contaminants (ECs) and their mixture, combined with two temperature rise scenarios, on the biomass production of a NE Atlantic estuary. Scenarios ran for 10 years with a time-step of 0.1 days. The results indicate that macroinvertebrate biomass was significantly explained by the effect of each single EC and by their mixture but not by temperature. Globally, the most adverse effects were induced by two ECs and by the mixture of the four ECs, although the sensitivity of macroinvertebrates to the tested scenarios differed. Overall, the present approach is useful to prioritize the effects of stressors and assess the sensitivity of the different trophic groups within food webs, which may be of relevance to support decision making linked to the sustainable management of estuaries and other aquatic systems.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 74%

Prioritizing the Effects of Emerging Contaminants on Estuarine Production under Global Warming Scenarios

Martins

Soares

Neuparth

et al. 2022

Toxics

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“…Outputs of such models could provide updated input to existing stock assessments for species such as capelin where predation by marine mammals are an integral but not recently updated element that propagates into fisheries quota advice (ICES, 2022 ). Or to new integrated ecosystem‐based management approaches for sustainable human activities in this region (Bossier et al, 2020 ), including identifying the levels of exploitation of prey species that would ensure sufficient prey remains available for predator consumption (Cury et al, 2011 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A regime shift in the Southeast Greenland marine ecosystem

Heide‐Jørgensen

Chambault

Jansen

et al. 2022

Global Change Biology

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Two major oceanographic changes have recently propagated through several trophic levels in coastal areas of Southeast Greenland (SEG). Firstly, the amount of drift-ice exported from the Fram Strait and transported with the East Greenland Current (EGC) has decreased significantly over the past two decades, and a main tipping element (summer sea ice) has virtually disappeared since 2003 leading to a regime shift in oceanographic and ecological conditions in the region. The following 20-year period with low or no coastal sea ice is unique in the 200-year history of ice observations in the region, and the regime shift is also obvious in the volume of ice export through the Fram Strait after 2013. In the same period, the temperature of the EGC south of 73.5 N has increased significantly (>2°C) since 1980. Secondly, the warm Irminger Current, which advects warm, saline Atlantic Water into the region, has become warmer since 1990. The lack of pack ice in summer together with a warming ocean generated cascading effects on the ecosystem in SEG that are manifested in a changed fish fauna with an influx of boreal species in the south and the subarctic capelin further north. At higher trophic levels there has been an increase in the abundance of several boreal cetaceans (humpback, fin, killer, and pilot whales and dolphins) that are either new to this area or occur in historically large numbers. It is estimated that the new cetacean species in SEG are responsible for an annual predation level of 700,000 tons of fish. In addition, predation on krill species is estimated at >1,500,000 tons mainly consumed by fin whales. Simultaneously, there has been a reduction in the abundance and catches of narwhals and walruses in SEG and it is suggested that these species have been impacted by the habitat changes.

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“…The model only contains herbivorous consumers and therefore excludes carnivores. Because carnivores play an important role in the marine ecosystem, calls for even more complex so‐called end‐to‐end models are regularly heard (Bossier et al, 2020, 2021; Fulton, 2010). A fish larva of a few millimeters in size naturally behaves very differently from an adult fish with a length of many decimeters or even meters, and it is therefore preferable to include the length distribution of these groups in the model structure, which naturally leads to extremely complex models with often dozens of state variables, in which all kinds of simplifications are applied to keep things manageable (Maury & Poggiale, 2013).…”

Section: Carrying Capacity and Trade‐offsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Model Precision Realism and Generalitymentioning

confidence: 99%

The carrying capacity of the seas and oceans for future sustainable food production: Current scientific knowledge gaps

Meer

Callier

Fabi

et al. 2023

Food and Energy Security

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The expected increase in global food demand, as a consequence of a rising and wealthier world population, and an awareness of the limits and drawbacks of modern agriculture, has resulted in a growing attention to the potential of the seas and oceans to produce more food. The capture production of presently exploited marine fish stocks and other species has more or less reached its maximum and can only be slightly improved by better management. This leaves four alternative options open to increase marine food production: (1) manipulating the entire food web structure via removal of high trophic level species to allow an increasing exploitation of low trophic level species, (2) harvesting so far unexploited stocks, such as various fish species from the mesopelagic zone of the ocean or the larger zooplankton species from polar regions, (3) low-trophic mariculture of seaweeds and herbivorous animals, and (4) restoration of impoverished coastal ecosystems or artificially increasing productivity by ecological engineering. In this paper, we discuss these four options and pay attention to missing scientific knowledge needed to assess their sustainability. To assess sustainability, it is a prerequisite to establish robust definitions and assessments of the biological carrying capacity of the systems, but it is also necessary to evaluate broader socio-economic and governance sustainability.

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Exploring trophic interactions and cascades in the Baltic Sea using a complex end-to-end ecosystem model with extensive food web integration

Cited by 16 publications

References 39 publications

Prioritizing the Effects of Emerging Contaminants on Estuarine Production under Global Warming Scenarios

Prioritizing the Effects of Emerging Contaminants on Estuarine Production under Global Warming Scenarios

A regime shift in the Southeast Greenland marine ecosystem

The carrying capacity of the seas and oceans for future sustainable food production: Current scientific knowledge gaps

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