Extension and implementation of a system modelling the COVID-19 pandemic in Chile

Abstract

We modelling the dynamics of the COVID-19 epidemic taking into account the role of the unreported cases. In a first section we extend the model recently introduced/ implemented by Liu, Magal, Seydi and Webb, by considering different transmission rates for the infectious and unreported states, and we couple three new states related to hospitalized and fatalities. In addition, we introduce an operator that incorporates the effects of mitigation measures at the different rates considered in the system. Finally, we implemented the extended model in the Chilean context by considering variable the transmission rates and the fraction of unreported cases, the latter through an argument that uses mortality rates. We conclude with several conclusions and lines of future research.