Extreme events delay the detection of marine protected area effects: Implications for monitoring and management

Hopf, Jess K.; White, J. Wilson

doi:10.1016/j.biocon.2023.110250

Cited by 5 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 48 publications

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“…Since the age, size and enforcement of MPAs have been demonstrated to strongly influence their ecological effectiveness (Claudet et al, 2008;Nowakowski et al, 2023), we took these features into account when classifying our MPAs. High protection refers to no-take areas with high or medium enforcement that are larger than 10 km 2 and have been established at least 10 years before the survey, a conservative approach given the home range of reef fish species (Krueck et al, 2018) and the impact of disturbance on the lag in MPA benefits (Hopf & White, 2023).…”

Section: Protection Levelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…responses and extreme events may blur expected patterns of increased fish occurrence, density and biomass within MPAs (Hopf & White, 2023;Kraufvelin et al, 2020;White et al, 2013). For instance, the cover of complex living corals can greatly affect the local abundance of many species, regardless of fishing restrictions (Russ et al, 2021), while extreme events can delay MPA benefits up to 10 years (Hopf & White, 2023). Conservation gains inside MPAs are also mediated by reef accessibility and nearby human density (Cinner et al, 2018).…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Large-scale analyses of species-specific MPA benefits remain challenging for a number of reasons. In particular, extreme variability between regions in the socio-economic and environmental context, that determines MPA effectiveness (Cinner et al, 2018;Hopf & White, 2023), may exceed variability among protected and unprotected areas within regions (MacNeil et al, 2020). This means that, for any given fish species, MPAs may provide an effective conservation solution in one location, but not in another.…”

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confidence: 99%

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Rarity mediates species‐specific responses of tropical reef fishes to protection

Sanchez,

Loiseau,

Edgar

et al. 2024

Ecology Letters

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Marine protected areas (MPAs) are the most widely applied tool for marine biodiversity conservation, yet many gaps remain in our understanding of their species‐specific effects, partly because the socio‐environmental context and spatial autocorrelation may blur and bias perceived conservation outcomes. Based on a large data set of nearly 3000 marine fish surveys spanning all tropical regions of the world, we build spatially explicit models for 658 fish species to estimate species‐specific responses to protection while controlling for the environmental, habitat and socio‐economic contexts experienced across their geographic ranges. We show that the species responses are highly variable, with ~40% of fishes not benefitting from protection. When investigating how traits influence species' responses, we find that rare top‐predators and small herbivores benefit the most from MPAs while mid‐trophic level species benefit to a lesser extent, and rare large herbivores experience adverse effects, indicating potential trophic cascades.

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Section: Protection Levelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Rarity mediates species‐specific responses of tropical reef fishes to protection

Sanchez,

Loiseau,

Edgar

et al. 2024

Ecology Letters

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Ecological success of no‐take marine protected areas: Using population dynamics theory to inform a global meta‐analysis

Hopf,

Quennessen,

Ridgway

et al. 2024

Ecological Applications

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Adaptively managing marine protected areas (MPAs) requires accurately assessing whether established MPAs are achieving their goals of protecting and conserving biomass, especially for harvested populations. Ecological MPA assessments commonly compare inside of the MPA to a reference point outside of and/or before implementation (i.e., calculating “response ratios”). Yet, MPAs are not simple ecological experiments; by design, protected populations interact with those outside, and population dynamic responses can be nonlinear. This complicates assessment interpretations. Here, we used a two‐patch population model to explore how MPA response ratios (outside–inside, before–after, and before–after‐control‐impact [BACI]) for fished populations behave under different conditions, like whether the population is receiving a sustainable larval supply or if it is declining despite protection from harvest. We then conducted a Bayesian evaluation of MPA effects on fish and invertebrate populations based on data collected from 82 published studies on 264 no‐take MPAs worldwide, using the results of an earlier global meta‐analysis as priors. We considered the effects of calculating different summary metrics on these results, drawing on the theoretical insights from our population model as a comparative framework. We demonstrate that not all response ratio comparison types provide the same information: For example, outside–inside and BACI comparisons can fail to detect population decline within MPAs, whereas before–after comparisons likely detect that pattern. Considering these limitations, we nonetheless found that MPAs globally are producing positive outcomes, with on average greater biomass, density, and organism size within their boundaries than reference sites. However, only a small portion of studies (18 of 82) provided the temporal data necessary to determine that protection, on average, has led to increased abundance of populations within MPAs over time. These findings demonstrate the importance of considering the underlying system dynamics when assessing MPA effects. Assuming that large outside–inside or BACI response ratios always reflect large and net positive conservation effects may lead to misleading conclusions, we recommend that: (1) when assessing specific MPA effects, empirical findings be considered alongside theoretical knowledge relevant to that MPA system, and (2) management should respond to the local conditions and outcomes, rather than a blanket expectation for positive MPA effects.

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Extreme events and coupled socio-ecological systems

White,

Wulfing

2024

Ecological Modelling

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Extreme events delay the detection of marine protected area effects: Implications for monitoring and management

Cited by 5 publications

References 48 publications

Rarity mediates species‐specific responses of tropical reef fishes to protection

Rarity mediates species‐specific responses of tropical reef fishes to protection

Ecological success of no‐take marine protected areas: Using population dynamics theory to inform a global meta‐analysis

Extreme events and coupled socio-ecological systems

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