Facing a Hypervelocity Asteroid Impact Disaster: To Deflect or Evacuate?

Abstract

Understanding of the near-Earth asteroid impact hazard has been evolving. As larger near-Earth objects (NEOs) are retired from concern by the Spaceguard Survey, as new search strategies oriented toward short-term warning are brought on line, as we understand the increasing danger from NEOs in the 15 m to 40 m size range, and in the aftermath of the 2013 Chelyabinsk impact disaster, attention necessarily must shift toward dealing with the most likely dangerous impacts, those in the range of Chelyabinsk to Tunguska. Appropriate responses to predicted impacts by smaller NEOs involve civil defense and emergency planning endeavors. Deflection of an NEO's trajectory by spacecraft impact, or other means, is becoming a less likely type of mitigation than evacuation. We need more research on the environmental and human consequences of diverse types of hypervelocity NEOs interacting with the Earth's atmosphere, oceans, and land surfaces.

From impact refugees to deterritorialized states: foresighting extreme legal-policy cases in asteroid impact scenarios

“…On the other hand, the state of science could change the political scenario, being directly related to technological development at the time of potentially hazardous asteroid (PHA) discovery. Significant improvements in deflection capabilities would entail a radical modification of the legal framework: the enhancement of laser or ion beam techniques [17], the shortening of the response time by dramatically improving the spacecraft launches and the possible mission payloads [18], or the development of exotic methods, such as antimatter weapons or solar sails [19]. This analysis leads us to assess circumstances such as these outlined below.…”

Disaster civilian defense in urban management by preparation of executional and thinking infrastructure

“…In this a paper, we attempt to describe/propose how to adopt vulnerability assessment through mathematical modeling of major biophysical social vulnerability factors to establish an independent, scientific, efficient and comprehensive provincial disaster medical system in Hainan [12]. In addition, Hydrogeological hazards and weather events, as events that affect anthropized areas does not allow specific approaches for the defense of single good, but it finds a more effective solution based on the extensive knowledge of territory, perhaps at the scale of individual or several watersheds [13].…”