Factors associated with hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome based maximum entropy model in Zhejiang Province, China

Abstract

BackgroundHemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) is a serious public health problem in China. The geographic distribution has went throughout China, among which Zhejiang Province is an important epidemic area. Since 1963, more than 110,000 cases have been reported.MethodsWe collected the meteorological factors and socioeconomic indicators of Zhejiang Province, and constructed the HFRS ecological niche model of Zhejiang Province based on the algorithm of maximum entropy.ResultsModel AUC from 2009 to 2018, is 0.806–0.901. The high incidence of epidemics in Zhejiang Province is mainly concentrated in the eastern, western and central regions of Zhejiang Province. The contribution of digital elevation model ranged from 2009 to 2018 from 4.22 to 26.0%. The contribution of average temperature ranges from 6.26 to 19.65%, Gross Domestic Product contribution from 7.53 to 21.25%, and average land surface temperature contribution with the highest being 16.73% in 2011. In addition, the average contribution of DMSP/OLS, 20-8 precipitation and 8-20 precipitation were all in the range of 9%. All-day precipitation increases with the increase of rainfall, and the effect curve peaks at 1,250 mm, then decreases rapidly, and a small peak appears again at 1,500 mm. Average temperature response curve shows an inverted v-shape, where the incidence peaks at 17.8°C. The response curve of HFRS for GDP and DMSP/OLS shows a positive correlation.ConclusionThe incidence of HFRS in Zhejiang Province peaked in areas where the average temperature was 17.8°C, which reminds that in the areas where temperature is suitable, personal protection should be taken when going out as to avoid contact with rodents. The impact of GDP and DMSP/OLS on HFRS is positively correlated. Most cities have good medical conditions, but we should consider whether there are under-diagnosed cases in economically underdeveloped areas.

Epidemiological characteristics and prediction model construction of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Quzhou City, China, 2005–2022

“…Quzhou has reported HFRS cases every year. From 2005 to 2022, the average annual incidence was 2.15/100,000, which was higher than the average level of Zhejiang Province (0.91/100,000) (13). Differences in incidence due to different topography and climate (28).…”

“…In the past decade, outbreaks in Zhejiang Province have continued to be sporadic. Quzhou, located in the western part of Zhejiang Province, has always been a high-incidence area, and Kaihua County ranks among the top five in the province in terms of cumulative cases from 2005 to 2020 ( 13 ). Therefore, it is of great significance to establish an epidemic prediction model for HFRS, explore its epidemic characteristics and development patterns, and seek optimal prevention and control strategies.…”