Failure probability analysis for emergency disconnect of deepwater drilling riser using Bayesian network

Chang, Yuanjiang; Chen, Guo-Ming; Wu, Xiangfei; Ye, Jihua; Chen, Bin; Xu, Li

doi:10.1016/j.jlp.2017.11.005

Cited by 55 publications

(21 citation statements)

References 28 publications

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“…area in 2017. [3][4][5] Various factors will lead to riser emergency disconnect and the resultant recoil. 2 However, the environmental conditions in the South China Sea are harsh, the frequent typhoons, internal solitary waves, and local unanticipated rapid-developing seastates would threaten the safety and induce huge risk to hydrate production test.…”

mentioning

confidence: 84%

“…3 In order to perform probabilistic analysis, prior probabilities of all basic events are assigned with values derived from three main sources. 3 In order to perform probabilistic analysis, prior probabilities of all basic events are assigned with values derived from three main sources.…”

Section: Dbn Model Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…3,28,[50][51][52] Another source of probability, as well as the failure and repair rates of equipment in the RRC system, is obtained from the literature, handbook, and failure database, such as OREDA, HSE, and OGP. 3,28,[50][51][52] Another source of probability, as well as the failure and repair rates of equipment in the RRC system, is obtained from the literature, handbook, and failure database, such as OREDA, HSE, and OGP.…”

Section: Dbn Model Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…3,28,42,43 The objective of the present paper is to propose a DBNbased methodology to predict the dynamic risk of RRC failure over time during production test of marine hydrate. For riser recoil control during production test of hydrate, the objective data available to estimate probabilities of basic events are scarce, and there are some events which have unknown failure data, due to less frequency of occurrence.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…area in 2017. From 10 May to 9 July, the production test lasted for 60 days, and the cumulative gas volume produced during the sixty-day test was approximately 309 000 m 3 , which holds the new record for the longest production time and the highest cumulative volume in the world's offshore gas hydrate production test, which is essential to the future global energy supply. 2 However, the environmental conditions in the South China Sea are harsh, the frequent typhoons, internal solitary waves, and local unanticipated rapid-developing seastates would threaten the safety and induce huge risk to hydrate production test.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dynamic risk assessment approach of riser recoil control failure during production test of marine natural gas hydrate

Chang

Zhang

et al. 2019

Energy Science & Engineering

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The marine natural gas hydrate is considered to have huge resource potential in the South China Sea, and a sixty‐day production test has been successfully conducted in 2017. As the crucial and most vulnerable connection of floating platform and subsea wellhead, the risers are of paramount importance in safe production test of the hydrate. Due to harsh environment and the possible drive off and drift off events induced by failure of dynamic positioning system of the platform, the unplanned emergency disconnect of risers is an integral preventive measure to avoid accidents and secure the well. Once the disconnect occurs, the huge potential energy stored in the riser column will release and consequently cause violent axial recoil, which will cause serious consequences if the recoil control fails. This paper presented a quantitative risk assessment approach on the basis of dynamic Bayesian networks to dynamically predict the risk of riser recoil control failure during production test of hydrate. By using the proposed method, the dynamic failure risk of the riser recoil control was figured out, and the most contributory factors were identified. The practical application of the proposed methodology was demonstrated through a case study. Results indicated that the probability of riser recoil control failure can be significantly decreased within one year through equipment repair, and the failure and repair rates of shutoff valves and main air isolation valves are the most contributory factors. Some corresponding safety control measures were proposed to further mitigate the risk of riser recoil control failure during the production test of hydrate.

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confidence: 84%

Section: Dbn Model Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Dbn Model Developmentmentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

mentioning

confidence: 99%

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Dynamic risk assessment approach of riser recoil control failure during production test of marine natural gas hydrate

Chang

Zhang

et al. 2019

Energy Science & Engineering

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Artificial intelligence techniques and their application in oil and gas industry

Choubey

Karmakar

2020

Artif Intell Rev

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Knowledge acquisition development in failure diagnosis analysis as an interactive approach

Yazdi

Soltanali

2018

Int J Interact Des Manuf

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Safety and reliability analysis is an important issue to prevent an event which may to occurrence of catastrophic accident in process industries. In this context, conventional safety and reliability assessment technique like as fault tree analysis have been widely used in this regards; however, they still suffer in subjective uncertainty processing and dynamic structure representation which are important in risk assessment procedure. In this paper, a new framework based on 2-tuple intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and Bayesian network mechanism is proposed to evaluate system reliability, to deal with mentioned drawbacks, and to recognize the most critical system components which affects the system reliability. The reliability and safety guarantee of such system in the aspect of continuity operations and enhancing the safety of operators and vehicle drivers are crucial. The results revealed that the proposed model could be useful for diagnosing the systems' faults compared with listing approaches of safety and reliability analysis.

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Failure probability analysis for emergency disconnect of deepwater drilling riser using Bayesian network

Cited by 55 publications

References 28 publications

Dynamic risk assessment approach of riser recoil control failure during production test of marine natural gas hydrate

Dynamic risk assessment approach of riser recoil control failure during production test of marine natural gas hydrate

Artificial intelligence techniques and their application in oil and gas industry

Knowledge acquisition development in failure diagnosis analysis as an interactive approach

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