¿Fallaron las encuestas y los pronósticos en los resultados
electorales de 2020 en Estados Unidos?

Castillo, Jesús Guzmán; Portillo, Juan Manuel Muñoz; Rojas, Diego Vega

doi:10.35242/rde_2021_31_12

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Overview Of Citizen Forecasting1

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2024

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“…Vote expectation polling asks citizens what candidate or party they expect will win (Lewis-Beck & Tien, 1999). Sometimes vote intention polling misses behaviour of key groups in the electorate, such as during the 2020 US presidential election (Castillo et al, 2021). Vote expectation polling, or citizen forecasting, can complement traditional polls in these cases.…”

Section: Overview Of Citizen Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Can Latin American Voters see the Future?

Thompson-Collart,

Dufresne,

Brie

2024

Rev. Lat. Op. Pub.

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The present study examined whether Argentinian citizens could predict election results at the sub-national level. We targeted Argentinian Twitter users in seven provinces with polls using Twitter Ads. Argentinian Twitter users constitute a high-ability subgroup that possesses several characteristics that enhance citizen forecasting competence. The polls asked citizens to predict what party would win the first round of the upcoming presidential election in their province. We present a preliminary citizen forecast of the first round of the 2023 Argentinian presidential election. The forecast demonstrates three preliminary findings. First, citizens expect a competitive election in their respective provinces. Second, citizens in almost all the provinces expect an opposition victory. Finally, a high degree of uncertainty surrounds these predictions, with no party obtaining a greater than 50 percent probability of winning in any of the provinces.

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Section: Overview Of Citizen Forecastingmentioning

confidence: 99%