With the continuous development of physical education reform, the defects and deficiencies of physical education teaching in colleges and universities are increasingly exposed. The reform of the original physical education teaching thought, education system, teaching mode, and method has achieved little. At present, the research on the prediction of physical education teaching achievements is mainly aimed at the prediction of athletes and physical education teaching achievements or the prediction of the past data of college students. This paper studies the physical education under the decision tree under the background of big data and constructs the physical education management system. When the number of tests reaches 40, the qualified rate of long-distance running is 65.2%, that of basketball is 68.1%, and that of volleyball is 68.2%. The quality of physical education teaching determines the lifeline of the development of school physical education teaching. In the process of collecting and selecting teaching materials, this paper enriches teaching materials and teaching reflection, cultivates one’s own understanding, and improves the artistic appeal and creativity of teaching.