Field Estimation of a Lethal Oxythermal Niche Boundary for Adult Ciscoes in Minnesota Lakes

Jacobson, Peter C.; Jones, Thomas S.; Rivers, Pat; Pereira, Donald L.

doi:10.1577/t07-148.1

Cited by 60 publications

(96 citation statements)

References 38 publications

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“…They were determined through model validation of cisco mortality or survival conditions occurred in the unusually warm summer of 2006 in 23 Minnesota lakes. Adult cisco mortality was reported by Jacobson et al [4] in 18 of the 23 cisco lakes in Minnesota (Table 1 and Figure 2). Cisco mortality happened from mid-July to early August in 2006 [4].…”

Section: Simulation and Validation Of Cisco Survival Or Lethal Conditmentioning

confidence: 69%

“…Adult cisco mortality was reported by Jacobson et al [4] in 18 of the 23 cisco lakes in Minnesota (Table 1 and Figure 2). Cisco mortality happened from mid-July to early August in 2006 [4]. Additional five lakes without cisco mortality in 2006 were also studied by Jacobson et al [4]; these five lakes were called "reference" lakes by them and in this study.…”

Section: Simulation and Validation Of Cisco Survival Or Lethal Conditmentioning

confidence: 69%

“…These 23 cisco lakes are located in north central Minnesota (Figure 2). The surface areas (As) and maximum depths (Hmax) of the 23 Minnesota lakes ranged from 1.02 to 518.29 km 2 , and 8.53 to 63.4 m [4], respectively. Based on lake classes developed for Minnesota lakes [13], 12 of the 23 cisco lakes are classified as mediumdepth lake as 5 m ≤ Hmax < 20 m (Figure 3a), and remaining 11 lakes are deep lakes as Hmax > 20 m (Figure 3b).…”

Section: Simulation and Validation Of Cisco Survival Or Lethal Conditmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In this study, T and DO, the two most significant water quality parameters affecting survival of fishes in lakes [1][2][3][4][5][6], were simulated using a one-dimensional lake water quality model MINLAKE2012 and were used to simulate/project cold-water fish survival and lethal conditions in 620 cisco lakes in Minnesota under past climate conditions and one future climate scenario. An increase of atmospheric CO 2 and/or other greenhouse gases is projected to cause climate changes and climate warming [7,8], which in turn is projected to warm the water and increase hypolimnetic oxygen depletion during summer stratification in lakes [9][10][11].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Cisco also exists in lakes over other northern states, e.g., Wisconsin and Michigan. The combination of a wide geographic distribution in northern Minnesota [15] and a requirement for cold, oxygenated water [4,16,17] makes cisco a sensitive indicator Notes: 1 H max is the maximum lake depth and GR is the lake geometry ratio (GR) = A s 0.25 /H max (A s is surface area in m 2 ); 2 Little Pine Lake at Otter Tail County; 3 Little Pine Lake at Crow Wing County; 4 number of pairs of simulated and observed T or DO data (at different days and at different depths) for computing model error parameters; 5 Root-mean-square error (RMSE) between simulated and measured (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Root-mean-square_deviation); and 6 Nash-Sutcliff model efficiency (NSE) coefficient [19].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulation and Validation of Cisco Lethal Conditions in Minnesota Lakes under Past and Future Climate Scenarios Using Constant Survival Limits

Jiang

Fang

2016

Water

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Fish habitat in lakes is strongly constrained by water temperature (T) and available dissolved oxygen (DO) that are changed under climate warming. A one dimensional, dynamic water quality model MINLAKE2012 was used for T and DO simulation over 48 years. A fish habitat model FishHabitat2013 using simulated T and DO profiles as input was developed to determine lethal conditions of cisco Corgenous artedi in Minnesota lakes. Twenty-three lakes that had observations of cisco mortality or survival in the unusually warm summer of 2006 were used for model validation. The cisco habitat model used a lethal temperature of 22.1˝C and DO survival limit of 3 mg/L determined through model validation and sensitivity analysis. Cisco lethal conditions in 12 shallow, 16 medium-depth, and 30 deep virtual lakes were then simulated. Isopleths of total number of years with cisco kill and average cisco kill days for the years with kills under past and future climate were generated to understand/extrapolate climate impacts on cisco in 620 Minnesota lakes. Shallow and medium-depth lakes are projected to not be good candidates for cisco refuge lakes, but deep lakes are possible cisco refuge lakes based on lethal condition projection under future warmer climate.

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Section: Simulation and Validation Of Cisco Survival Or Lethal Conditmentioning

confidence: 69%

Section: Simulation and Validation Of Cisco Survival Or Lethal Conditmentioning

confidence: 69%

Section: Simulation and Validation Of Cisco Survival Or Lethal Conditmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulation and Validation of Cisco Lethal Conditions in Minnesota Lakes under Past and Future Climate Scenarios Using Constant Survival Limits

Jiang

Fang

2016

Water

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Conceptualising the interactive effects of climate change and biological invasions on subarctic freshwater fish

Rolls

Hayden

Kahilainen

2017

Ecology and Evolution

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Climate change and species invasions represent key threats to global biodiversity. Subarctic freshwaters are sentinels for understanding both stressors because the effects of climate change are disproportionately strong at high latitudes and invasion of temperate species is prevalent. Here, we summarize the environmental effects of climate change and illustrate the ecological responses of freshwater fishes to these effects, spanning individual, population, community and ecosystem levels. Climate change is modifying hydrological cycles across atmospheric, terrestrial and aquatic components of subarctic ecosystems, causing increases in ambient water temperature and nutrient availability. These changes affect the individual behavior, habitat use, growth and metabolism, alter population spawning and recruitment dynamics, leading to changes in species abundance and distribution, modify food web structure, trophic interactions and energy flow within communities and change the sources, quantity and quality of energy and nutrients in ecosystems. Increases in temperature and its variability in aquatic environments underpin many ecological responses; however, altered hydrological regimes, increasing nutrient inputs and shortened ice cover are also important drivers of climate change effects and likely contribute to context‐dependent responses. Species invasions are a complex aspect of the ecology of climate change because the phenomena of invasion are both an effect and a driver of the ecological consequences of climate change. Using subarctic freshwaters as an example, we illustrate how climate change can alter three distinct aspects of species invasions: (1) the vulnerability of ecosystems to be invaded, (2) the potential for species to spread and invade new habitats, and (3) the subsequent ecological effects of invaders. We identify three fundamental knowledge gaps focused on the need to determine (1) how environmental and landscape characteristics influence the ecological impact of climate change, (2) the separate and combined effects of climate and non‐native invading species and (3) the underlying ecological processes or mechanisms responsible for changes in patterns of biodiversity.

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Quantifying the resilience of coldwater lake habitat to climate and land use change to prioritize watershed conservation

et al. 2022

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Managing ecological systems for resilience can increase their capacity to maintain key functions even under global change. Oxygenated coldwater (oxythermal) habitat in lakes is an important ecological resource that is threatened by both climate change and eutrophication. Here, we quantify the resilience of oxythermal habitat in over 10,000 glacial lakes in the upper Midwestern United States to climate change and watershed disturbance and classify lakes for conservation prioritization based on their current conditions and resilience. Oxythermal habitat was predicted by lake morphometry, July air temperatures, and watershed land use. Temperatures are projected to increase by mid‐century, and the magnitude of warming, its effect on oxythermal habitat, and the uncertainty surrounding that effect varied among lakes. Under mid‐century climate conditions, the number of lakes containing suitable coldwater habitat was predicted to decline by 67%, while the number of lakes with unsuitable habitat was predicted to increase by over 200%. Lakes varied in the amount of temperature increase that they could sustain without a resultant change in habitat tier (i.e., their climate resilience). Median climate resilience was 4.3°C, with some lakes capable of remaining in their habitat tier even with temperature increases up to 14°C. Changing watershed land use was predicted to influence oxythermal habitat in 24% of lakes (n = 2391). We used the magnitude of increase in watershed development that a lake could sustain while remaining in its current habitat class as a measure of its resilience to watershed disturbance. Conversely, decreased watershed development may improve oxythermal habitat conditions and push a lake into an improved condition, and this value represented a lake's restoration potential. We classified lakes into seven management classes based on their current oxythermal habitat conditions and the resilience of oxythermal habitat to climate and watershed disturbance. To facilitate management on individual lakes, we also assessed the vulnerability and resilience of individual lakes and the uncertainty surrounding these estimates. By quantifying the resilience of lakes and how it is influenced by local action across a multistate region, we can prioritize conservation action across multiple scales to maintain the critical habitat and ecosystem function of glacial lakes.

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Field Estimation of a Lethal Oxythermal Niche Boundary for Adult Ciscoes in Minnesota Lakes

Cited by 60 publications

References 38 publications

Simulation and Validation of Cisco Lethal Conditions in Minnesota Lakes under Past and Future Climate Scenarios Using Constant Survival Limits

Simulation and Validation of Cisco Lethal Conditions in Minnesota Lakes under Past and Future Climate Scenarios Using Constant Survival Limits

Conceptualising the interactive effects of climate change and biological invasions on subarctic freshwater fish

Quantifying the resilience of coldwater lake habitat to climate and land use change to prioritize watershed conservation

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