Field Measures Are All You Need: Predicting Need for Surgery in Elderly Ground-Level Fall Patients via Machine Learning

Abstract

Background As ground-level falls (GLFs) are a significant cause of mortality in elderly patients, field triage plays an essential role in patient outcomes. This research investigates how machine learning algorithms can supplement traditional t-tests to recognize statistically significant patterns in medical data and to aid clinical guidelines. Methods This is a retrospective study using data from 715 GLF patients over 75 years old. We first calculated P-values for each recorded factor to determine the factor’s significance in contributing to a need for surgery ( P < .05 is significant). We then utilized the XGBoost machine learning method to rank contributing factors. We applied SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values to interpret the feature importance and provide clinical guidance via decision trees. Results The three most significant P-values when comparing patients with and without surgery are as follows: Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) ( P < .001), no comorbidities ( P < .001), and transfer-in ( P = .019). The XGBoost algorithm determined that GCS and systolic blood pressure contribute most strongly. The prediction accuracy of these XGBoost results based on the test/train split was 90.3%. Discussion When compared to P-values, XGBoost provides more robust, detailed results regarding the factors that suggest a need for surgery. This demonstrates the clinical applicability of machine learning algorithms. Paramedics can use resulting decision trees to inform medical decision-making in real time. XGBoost’s generalizability power increases with more data and can be tuned to prospectively assist individual hospitals.