Finding Optimal Timetables for Edinburgh Bus Routes

Abstract

We present a novel application of stochastic simulation and model-checking methods to determining whether bus services are fulfilling their service-level agreement to provide on-time departures of buses from stops sufficiently often. We use open data on predicted bus arrival times to parameterise a stochastic model of a particular bus route from Edinburgh city centre out to suburban and rural areas to the south of the city. We validate and then analyse our stochastic model using both simulation and model-checking methods. Finally, we complete an optimisation study on the model and discover a better timetable for the service which would expose the bus service operator to less financial risk of penalties being applied by the regulatory authorities which define standards for bus service, punctuality and reliability.

ProPPA

“…Although originally designed for modelling biological processes, Bio-PEPA has found application in other domains of large scale collective behaviour, such as crowd movement [35] and urban transport [52].…”

Modeling of polygons of maximum passenger route transport accessibility by the example of the transport system of Ukraine

“…In [4], the authors considered the issue of the probability of choosing a route for traveling by passengers in the presence of a set of options. The model of the probabilistic process of bus communication is defined.…”

Investigation of approaches to modeling of intercity passenger transportation system

“…The authors of [3] considered the ISSN 2226-3780 problem of planning routes for public transport systems and suggested the representation of a multimodal transport network using the multi-criteria routing algorithm for modeling. In the authors' paper [4], a model of the probabilistic process of bus communication is defined. The authors of [5] determined that the choice of a route by a multitude of passengers plays a primary role in estimating flows and forecasting demand.…”