Flash flood prediction using an uncalibrated hydrological model and radar rainfall data in a Mediterranean watershed under changing hydrological conditions

Rozalis, S.; Morin, Efrat; Yair, Yoav; Price, Colin

doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2010.03.021

Cited by 170 publications

(114 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…The role of rainfall variability is even greater in climate regimes where a substantial portion of rainfall is convective and runoff is sensitive to this type of rainfall (Morin and Yakir, 2014;Rozalis et al, 2010;Smith et al, 2000;Yakir and Morin, 2011). The hydrological response was found to be sensitive to rainfall spatial variability in very small catchments (less than 1 km 2 ; Bahat et al, 2009), in catchments of few dozen km 2 (Zoccatelli et al, 2011) and larger catchments (> 100 km 2 ; Arnaud et al, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…Rainfall spatial and temporal variability plays a major role in the hydrological response of catchments affecting runoff timing, streamflow volume, and peak discharge (Morin et al, 2006;Morin and Yakir, 2014;Paschalis et al, 2014;Rozalis et al, 2010;Singh, 1997). The role of rainfall variability is even greater in climate regimes where a substantial portion of rainfall is convective and runoff is sensitive to this type of rainfall (Morin and Yakir, 2014;Rozalis et al, 2010;Smith et al, 2000;Yakir and Morin, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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A framework for assessing hydrological regime sensitivity to climate change in a convective rainfall environment: a case study of two medium-sized eastern Mediterranean catchments, Israel

Peleg

Shamir

Georgakakos

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract.A modeling framework is formulated and applied to assess the sensitivity of the hydrological regime of two catchments in a convective rainfall environment with respect to projected climate change. The study uses likely rainfall scenarios with high spatiotemporal resolution that are dependent on projected changes in the driving regional meteorological synoptic systems. The framework was applied to a case study in two medium-sized Mediterranean catchments in Israel, affected by convective rainfall, by combining the HiReS-WG rainfall generator and the SAC-SMA hydrological model. The projected climate change impact on the hydrological regime was examined for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, comparing the historical (beginning of the 21st century) and future (mid-21st-century) periods from three general circulation model simulations available from CMIP5. Focusing on changes in the occurrence frequency of regional synoptic systems and their impact on rainfall and streamflow patterns, we find that the mean annual rainfall over the catchments is projected to be reduced by 15 % (outer range 2-23 %) and 18 % (7-25 %) for the RCP4.5 sand RCP8.5 emission scenarios, respectively. The mean annual streamflow volumes are projected to be reduced by 45 % (10-60 %) and 47 % (16-66 %). The average events' streamflow volumes for a given event rainfall depth are projected to be lower by a factor of 1.4-2.1. Moreover, the streamflow season in these ephemeral streams is projected to be shorter by 22 % and 26-28 % for the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The amplification in reduction of streamflow volumes relative to rainfall amounts is related to the projected reduction in soil moisture, as a result of fewer rainfall events and longer dry spells between rainfall events during the wet season. The dominant factors for the projected reduction in rainfall amount were the reduction in occurrence of wet synoptic systems and the shortening of the wet synoptic systems durations. Changes in the occurrence frequency of the two dominant types of the regional wet synoptic systems (active Red Sea trough and Mediterranean low) were found to have a minor impact on the total rainfall.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A framework for assessing hydrological regime sensitivity to climate change in a convective rainfall environment: a case study of two medium-sized eastern Mediterranean catchments, Israel

Peleg

Shamir

Georgakakos

et al. 2015

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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“…Flash floods generally occur due to a unique and complex combination of meteorological, hydrological and topographical conditions [17]. Intense precipitation is usually considered as the main factor in the generation of flash floods [18].…”

Section: Idealised Valleymentioning

confidence: 99%

Flood Inundation Modelling of Flash Floods in Steep River Basins and Catchments

Kvočka¹,

Ahmadian²,

Falconer³

2017

Water

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Abstract:The potential flood inundation extent can be estimated with flood inundation models, which can differ in the level of physical and numerical modelling complexity included in the solution procedure. In recent years, several studies have highlighted the benefits of shock-capturing flood inundation models, particularly when modelling a high Froude number or supercritical flows, or in areas prone to the occurrence of rapidly varying flood events, such as flash floods. Nonetheless, decision makers are often reluctant to implement more complex modelling tools into practical flood inundation modelling studies, unless evidence is provided to establish when such refined modelling tools should be used. The main objective of this study was to determine a general threshold value of the bottom slope that could be used by decision makers as an orientation guide to ascertain when to use a specific type of flood inundation model. The results obtained suggest that in torrential river basins or catchments (i.e., river basins and catchments with a bed slope generally greater than 1%), the flood inundation modelling should be conducted by using a flood inundation model that include shock-capturing algorithms in the model solution procedure.

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“…Floods are among the most devastating of natural disasters and may cause immeasurable damage (Rozalis et al 2010). Floods have been classified into three major types: river flooding, flash flooding and coastal flooding.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

GIS-based spatial prediction of flood prone areas using standalone frequency ratio, logistic regression, weight of evidence and their ensemble techniques

Tehrany

Shabani

Jebur

et al. 2017

Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk

221

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The aim of this research was to evaluate the predictive performances of frequency ratio (FR), logistic regression (LR) and weight of evidence (WoE), in flood susceptibility mapping in China. In addition, the ensemble WoE and LR and ensemble FR and LR techniques were applied and used in the evaluation. The flood inventory map, consisting of 196 flood locations, was extracted from a number of sources. The flood inventory data were randomly divided into a testing data-set, allocating 70% for training, and the remaining 30% for validation. The 15 flood conditioning factors included in the spatial database were altitude, slope, aspect, geology, distance from river, distance from road, distance from fault, soil type, land use/cover, rainfall, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index, Stream Power Index, Topographic Wetness Index, Sediment Transport Index and curvature. For validation, success and prediction rate curves were developed using area under the curve (AUC) method. The results indicated that the highest prediction rate of 90.36% was achieved using the ensemble technique of WoE and LR. The standalone WoE produced the highest prediction rate among the individual methods. It can be concluded that WoE offers a more advanced method of mapping prone areas, compared with the FR and LR methods.

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Flash flood prediction using an uncalibrated hydrological model and radar rainfall data in a Mediterranean watershed under changing hydrological conditions

Cited by 170 publications

References 30 publications

A framework for assessing hydrological regime sensitivity to climate change in a convective rainfall environment: a case study of two medium-sized eastern Mediterranean catchments, Israel

A framework for assessing hydrological regime sensitivity to climate change in a convective rainfall environment: a case study of two medium-sized eastern Mediterranean catchments, Israel

Flood Inundation Modelling of Flash Floods in Steep River Basins and Catchments

GIS-based spatial prediction of flood prone areas using standalone frequency ratio, logistic regression, weight of evidence and their ensemble techniques

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