2020
DOI: 10.21203/rs.3.rs-82993/v1
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Fleeing lockdown and its impact on the size of epidemic outbreaks in the source and target regions - a COVID-19 lesson

Abstract: The COVID-19 pandemic forced authorities worldwide to implement moderate to severe restrictions in order to slow down or suppress the spread of the disease. It has been observed in several countries that a significant number of people fled a city or a region just before strict lockdown measures were implemented. This behavior carries the risk of seeding a large number of infections all at once in regions with otherwise small number of cases. In this work, we investigate the effect of fleeing on the size of an … Show more

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“…Stopping the intervention when the density of infecteds becomes less than the threshold value k is not always appropriate. Moreover, relaxing the NPIs has significant impact on the size of epidemic if we stop interventions before herd immunity is achieved [4]. To avoid next waves of the epidemic we propose to stop the intervention only when herd immunity is reached in the population.…”
Section: Quadratic In Disease Burden and Growing In Duration Exponentiallymentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Stopping the intervention when the density of infecteds becomes less than the threshold value k is not always appropriate. Moreover, relaxing the NPIs has significant impact on the size of epidemic if we stop interventions before herd immunity is achieved [4]. To avoid next waves of the epidemic we propose to stop the intervention only when herd immunity is reached in the population.…”
Section: Quadratic In Disease Burden and Growing In Duration Exponentiallymentioning
confidence: 99%