Fleet Type Planning for Private Air Transport After Covid-19

Abstract

The global impact of the epidemic COVID-19 has done great damage to air transport. Demand for airline transportation has declined for reasons such as quarantine practices by countries, curfews, the economic recession, and the transfer of meetings to digital platforms. This situation has also led to a change in individuals' preferences for air transport. The most striking change in air transport is the tendency of individuals to private air transport privately to minimize the health risks that may arise from personal contacts. Individuals who avoid commercial air transport where public transportation is has transitioned private air transport. For these reasons, an forecasting study was conducted in this study so that a private airline company can provide accurate flight plans in the future. For the forecast study, the number of aircraft types for 2022 was determined by obtaining data on the number of aircraft by passenger capacity, the number of flights, and the number of passengers for 2019-2021 from the airline company. In the forecasting study, the models with the highest accuracy value were selected from the machine learning models. The results provided important information about the company's future fleet planning.