Flight Status— ‘Grounded Indefinitely’: An Analysis of the Impact of COVID-19 on Commercial Aviation

Abstract

Since the unexpected eruption of COVID-19, travel has been heavily circumscribed by governments in an endeavour to curb the spread of the virus. This research study aimed at conducting a case-study analysis of the impact of the Coronavirus on the commercial aviation industry. It analysed changes in international passenger capacity from originally planned in a sampling of countries from different regions, from January to April 2020, to measure the impact of the pandemic on commercial aviation. The data for capacity change were regressed against days of lockdown and days of global travel ban to determine the extent of their impact. Qualitative data was also analysed to provide a multi-faceted picture. The study found that COVID-19 had a huge influence on commercial aviation during the period observed. Moreover, the restrictions implemented by governments were found to exert a statistically significant impact on the industry, accounting for 84% of the impact on the change in international passenger capacity. The equation generated provides a predictive tool for determining changes in passenger capacity in the foreseeable future if similar restrictive policies are imposed. A qualitative analysis of the context also reveals that airfares will fall in the short run as airlines compete to regain customers, but rise in the long run. The paper thus highlights the importance of government bailouts and the relaxation of specific rules to support airlines during these challenging times. Other necessary measures identified include fleet re-purposing, as well as the institution of additional safety measures to encourage air travel.