Flip-Flopping, Intense Primaries and the Selection of Candidates

Abstract

We present a model of two-stage elections in which candidates can choose different platforms in primaries and general elections. Voters do not directly observe the chosen platforms, but rather infer the candidates' ideologies from signals made during the campaign (debates, speeches), where a larger number of signals corresponds to a higher-intensity campaign. This model captures two patterns: (1) the "post-primary moderation effect," in which candidates pander to the party base during the primary and shift to the center in the general election; and (2) the "divisive-primary effect," which refers to the detrimental effect of intense primaries on a party's general-election prospects. These effects are obtained in spite of the fact that primary voters are forward-looking and take into account that a more extreme candidate has a smaller chance of winning the general election than a moderate one does.

Primárias abertas e simultâneas na América Latina. Uma proposta preliminar para um estudo comparativo

“…Finalmente, pueden evaluarse parcialmente los impactos negativos que las primarias generan sobre los partidos en ciertas condiciones. Por un lado, hay evidencia de que, con primarias divisivas (Agranov 2011;Atkenson 1998), los agrupamientos pueden resultar claramente perjudicados en la elección general, como ocurrió con el PN en Uruguay en 1999, con el PLD en República Dominicana en 2019 o con JxC en Argentina en 2023. Por otro lado, la posibilidad de que la primaria genere una candidatura extremista podría mitigarse por la ampliación del selectorado, ya sea a través del voto interno obligatorio como en Argentina (efecto que, no obstante, hasta ahora no ha sucedido 14 ) o el crossover voting (que paradójicamente constituye uno de los principales riesgos que se busca evitar con la simultaneidad) que se pudo observar en las primarias de Apruebo Dignidad, dada la no comparecencia de los partidos de la antigua Concertación, lo que facilitó el triunfo de Gabriel Boric (moderado) frente a Daniel Jadue (radical).…”

Etch-a-Sketching: Evaluating the Post-Primary Rhetorical Moderation Hypothesis

“…Formal theories of two-stage elections have long sought to deal with these costs explicitly (Agranov, 2011; Hummel, 2010). In a pair of compelling articles on the subject, Tomz and Van Houweling (2010, 2014) employ experimental designs to show that voters strongly prefer candidates who maintain consistent platforms.…”

“…As Brady et al (2007) argue, many Congressional races involve primary and general election constituencies that overlap considerably, to the point where candidates face little incentive to make significant changes after securing the nomination. Furthermore, we should only expect transformations when both the primary and general elections are contested, and thus likely to attract broad voter attention (Agranov, 2011; Meirowitz, 2005). In low-salience or uncontested elections, the potential upsides of the moderation strategy would almost certainly be washed out by the risk of appearing disingenuous (Hummel, 2010).…”

Elecciones primarias y personalización de la política: El caso de las elecciones locales en Chile 2012

“…Entre las desventajas de las primarias, en tanto, está el desgaste que se produce en un partido o coalición debido a la competencia interna (Barreda, 2004;Navia y Rojas, 2008). Muchas veces, las primarias dejan enemistados a los grupos internos, afectando el desempeño del partido en la elección general (Altman, 2012;Agranov, 2012). Los candidatos acumulan cansancio, invierten tiempo y recursos para ganar la primaria, 4…”