Flood Propagation Processes in the Jamuna River Floodplain in Sirajganj

Iqbal, Ashik; Mondal, M. Shahjahan; Khan, M. Shah Alam; Hakvoort, Hans; Veerbeek, William

doi:10.1007/978-3-030-95722-3_3

Cited by 4 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 16 publications

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“…Hydrodynamic modeling has become a popular tool in flood simulation (Biswas & Mondal, 2022; Iqbal et al, 2022) in Bangladesh. Simulated flood hazard is used as a surrogate for flood risk ignoring the dynamic characteristics of socioeconomic exposure and vulnerability.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated assessment of flood risk in Arial Khan floodplain of Bangladesh under changing climate and socioeconomic conditions

Chyon

Biswas

Mondal

et al. 2023

J Flood Risk Management

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In the assessment of flood risk, the future flood hazard due to climate change is often tied to the present socioeconomic conditions. This makes an implicit assumption that the drivers of risk, other than the hazard, remain constant with time. Therefore, such risk assessment does not provide a realistic outlook for devising plausible mitigation strategies and plans. In this study, flood risk was assessed from an integrated perspective by considering both physical hazard, and socioeconomic exposure and vulnerability-all changing with time.The flood hazard in the Arial Khan River floodplain in the southcentral Bangladesh was simulated with a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, and the exposure and vulnerability were projected using different statistical techniques. Principal component analysis was conducted to assign weights to the indicators of hazard, exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. The results show that the flood depth, duration, and extent would increase from the baseline to 2080s under regional concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. The sensitivity and vulnerability would decrease, reflecting an improved adaptive capacity. The low-risk areas could increase from 62% in the baseline to 85%-91% in 2080s depending on the RCPs. The approach followed can be applied elsewhere in developing countries, particularly in riverine floodplain settings. K E Y W O R D S climate change, flood exposure, integrated risk assessment, physical hazard, vulnerability projection 1 | INTRODUCTION Climate change (CC) is one of the world's most pressing environmental concerns, posing threats to both socioeconomic development and human survival. According to the sixth assessment report (AR6) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the global surface temperature might rise by more than 2 C by the end of this century for the regional concentration pathway (RCP) 6.0 and RCP 8.5 emission scenarios (IPCC, 2021).

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrated assessment of flood risk in Arial Khan floodplain of Bangladesh under changing climate and socioeconomic conditions

Chyon

Biswas

Mondal

et al. 2023

J Flood Risk Management

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“…The daily floodwater data at the UP, Culvert, and Pilot Site locations of Ranigram were collected during the monsoon season of 2018 and 2020 by installing three water level gages (Iqbal, 2021; Iqbal et al, 2022). The gages were installed with proper referencing to the national benchmark maintained by the Survey of Bangladesh.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The HEC‐RAS 2D model was used to understand the floodplain hydrodynamics of Ranigram (Farooq et al, 2019; Iqbal, 2021; Iqbal et al, 2022). HEC‐RAS can simulate the water surface profiles for 2D unsteady flow (Biswas & Mondal, 2022; Chyon et al, 2023; Mehta et al, 2021).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Two‐dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic modeling is needed for understanding flood propagation processes and improving flood forecasts at local levels (Iqbal et al, 2022; Meire et al, 2010). A 2D flood model can represent mixed flow regimes, highly dynamic flood waves, abrupt contraction and expansion, general wave propagation, and super‐elevation around bends (Hydrologic Engineering Center, 2018).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…More importantly, the 2D model is highly sensitive to the quality of the utilized digital elevation model (DEM) (Jain et al, 2018; Saksena & Merwade, 2015). 2D models typically rely on the open‐source DEMs available from remote sensing satellites (Iqbal et al, 2022; Jain et al, 2018; Masood & Takeuchi, 2011; Rahman, 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effectiveness of UAV‐based DTM and satellite‐based DEMs for local‐level flood modeling in Jamuna floodplain

Iqbal

Mondal

Veerbeek

et al. 2023

J Flood Risk Management

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Open‐source, satellite‐based digital elevation models (DEMs) are widely used for flood modeling. However, studies on effectiveness of these DEMs in depicting local‐level flood processes are limited. This study generated a high‐resolution digital terrain model (DTM) based on unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) photogrammetry and used in a two‐dimensional (2D) hydrodynamic model (HEC‐RAS) to simulate the flood processes in a floodplain environment of the Jamuna River in northern Bangladesh. The effectiveness of a few satellite‐based DEMs was also compared with this DTM by using the DEMs in the same hydrodynamic model. Field data for two flood seasons were collected to develop the model. The results indicate that the 2D model with UAV‐based DTM provides the flood parameters, such as flood arrival time, depth, duration and extent, better than those from the satellite‐based DEMs. Of the open‐source DEMs, the FABDEM and the WorldDEM™ have the least errors and provide better results compared to the SRTM30, ALOS PALSAR, and ASTER DEMs. The UAV technique with ground control points and field measurements for the tree‐canopy and water areas is very useful in generating a fit‐for‐purpose DTM. The findings of this study would be useful for terrain generation and DEM selection for local‐level flood modeling elsewhere.

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Dual Response Surface Optimization based on Skill Scores

Kozan,

Zeybek,

Kozan

2024

JSM

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The popular formulations of dual-response optimization are constructed on minimizing a function of bias and system variability. This study provides an opportunity to evaluate the dual response surface (DRS) problem from a different perspective by adapting two new terms such that internal and external quality forecasts. The background of the proposed approach focuses on the relationship between internal and external quality forecasts and discusses the DRS problem in regards of skill scores by defining a model quality criterion. Skill is the relative accuracy of the forecast and defines a correspondence between forecast of interest and reference forecasts. The reference forecast does not require any knowledge or modelling; thus, it is an unskilled forecast. In this context, skill score is a measure of this relative improvement and widely used in evaluating the performance of operational and experimental forecasts. An alternative version of mean square error (MSE) which is reconstructed by skill scores and model quality criterion is proposed as an objective function for the DRS problem. Integrating the relationship between internal and external quality forecasts into such a response function can improve the effectiveness and cooperation of the applied technique. The proposed approach has a flexible structure and provides decision makers alternative solutions for different values of the model quality criterion. The proposed procedure is discussed by conducted a simulation study and demonstrated in an engineering process.

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Flood Propagation Processes in the Jamuna River Floodplain in Sirajganj

Cited by 4 publications

References 16 publications

Integrated assessment of flood risk in Arial Khan floodplain of Bangladesh under changing climate and socioeconomic conditions

Integrated assessment of flood risk in Arial Khan floodplain of Bangladesh under changing climate and socioeconomic conditions

Effectiveness of UAV‐based DTM and satellite‐based DEMs for local‐level flood modeling in Jamuna floodplain

Dual Response Surface Optimization based on Skill Scores

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