focus on forecasting1

Abstract

The Program for Regional Observing and Forecasting Services (PROFS) work station is examined within the context of a real-time forecasting exercise conducted in the summer of 1983. Twenty-four experienced operational and research meteorologists participated; their recorded comments constitute the base of information from which we evaluate the work station and, in the process, discuss the state of the art in forecasting convective weather.The work station is easy to use: within an hour, most uninitiated forecasters are completely comfortable operating the equipment. The PROFS system has significantly advanced our ability to display current atmospheric conditions. The user interface and data-display system are the most sophisticated yet assembled for nowcasting and very short-range forecasting (as these terms are defined by Zipser, 1985), with access to products derived from a very broad range of data sets. Timely, frequent, and detailed data of several types presented with loop, zoom, and color-table versatility allow the forecaster to rapidly assess current conditions.Because of the comprehensive data and improved display capabilities, forecasters felt confident in extrapolating the intensity and movement of existing thunderstorms. Most of them believe that increased lead times and more site-specific warnings are now possible. They are less confident, however, in forecasting beyond the lifetime of existing features because of inadequacies in observation technologies and limitations in the current body of knowledge of meteorological processes on this scale. Exercise participants stressed that improvements are needed to advance forecast performance, especially work-station upgrades, better forecaster-training procedures, and research of meteorological processes.