Forecast changes in the macroeconomic environment, their impact on the state security system in the 21st century

Abstract

The contents of this article refer to theoretical considerations that concern the forecasting of strategic changes in the state security system, including the events taking place in its macroeconomic environment. In this regard, the authors have emphasised the complexity of modifications to the state security system, which should take into account not only the resources, but also changes in various spheres of its macroeconomic environment. The authors draw attention to the fact that, in practice, in the functioning of the state security system, any change of strategic (long-term) plans and their rational implementation requires the development of future scenarios. Their development allows for early identification of future threats to national security that might arise with changes in economic, political, technical, social and international spheres or be consequential. It is undoubtedly a very complex process requiring, first and foremost, a very good knowledge of the basic principles of strategic management, understanding the essence of national security and the ability to perceive opportunities and risks in turbulent environments. In this respect, the key importance is growing strategic thinking ability, which is just as important for a small country, as well as global hegemony.