Forecast for GDP energy intensity in 2020: Russia and other developed countries

Abstract

The linear equation of the regressional relationship for the internal consumption of primary fuel energy resources (FER) to GDP is (1) where is the internal consumption of primary FER in year t, V t is the size of GDP in year t, a 0 is a constant term, and a 1 is the coefficient characterizing the effect of the unit of GDP growth on primary con sumption of FER. Assume it to be constant over the entire period from 2007 to 2020.In order to obtain the coefficients a 0 and a 1 , the least square method was employed based on the pro cessed statistical data for 2000-2008 on the internal FER consumption and Russian GDP (Table 1). GDP parameters for 2000-2008 are given in the constant prices of 2007.The following regression equation is obtained:for E expressed in million tce; V in billions of rubles. The equation is statistically significant; the coeffi cient of determination is R 2 = 0.94 (multiple R = 0.97) and is not random, and the F criterion = 108.08. The model coefficients are statistically significant; the t statistic is 44.65 and 10.4, corresponding to the coef ficients of the equation. Table 1 also gives deviations of the calculated values from the actual figures of primary FER consumption by years.The elasticity coefficient of primary FER consumption to GDP obtained from (2) will be a 1 × =where and are the average values of V and E for 2000-2008. Therefore, under GDP growth by 1%, FER consumption increases by 0.17%. According to (2), the major contribution to inter nal consumption of FER is made by the constant term of regression; i.e., 768.35 million tce and FER con sumption in relation to GDP for 2007 is 213.92 mil lion tce, or 21.8%. At GDP growth in the forecast period up to 2020, the share of FER consumption that depends on the GDP will grow.The GDP energy intensity (E sp ) is determined by the formula (3) As is seen, at the constant value of the coefficient a 1 , the energy intensity will decrease with the GDP growth. The GDP energy intensity in 2007 was by equation (2): Therefore, the energy intensity depends on the pre dicted GDP growth. Estimate of GDP growth up to 2020. The GDP growth rate in Russia for 2009-2012 estimated by the Russian Ministry for Economic Development in November 2009 [1] is According to these data, the GDP size in 2012 (the GDP growth by 6.3% in 2008) will be 33 tril 2009 2010 2011 2012 GDP growth rate -8.5 2-3.3 2-3 3-4 27202.39 944.79 V E E sp E V a 0 a 1 V + V a 0 V a 1 . + = = = E sp 768.35 32.98 6 + 29.3 tce/million rubles. = = SCIENTIFIC REPORTSAbstract-A forecast of the energy intensity of the Russian GDP in 2020 has been prepared based on a one factor regression model and using statistical data on the internal consumption of fuel energy resources and GDP in 2000-2008. According to the obtained regression equation, the bulk of consumption of fuel energy resources does not depend on the GDP size (i.e., the constant term of regression is 768 tce), while the part of fuel energy resource consumption depending on the GDP was 214 tce for 2007, or 21.8% of the total con sumptio...