Forecast, Trend, Growth, and Instability of Potato Production in Bangladesh

Abstract

Although Bangladesh is known as a rice-eating country, enormous amounts of potatoes are produced and consumed each year. Potato has gradually acquired popularity in Bangladesh. Potato is grown as a food crop and a vegetable by both the rich and the poor. This study attempts to measure the trend, growth, and instability of potato production. Besides, here is an attempt to forecast the potato production of the coming years. This secondary data was gathered from the website https://www.potatopro.com/bangladesh/potato-statistics. Here, different statistical tools including t-test, correlation, simple linear regression, semi-log growth model, ARIMA (0,2,1) model, simple exponential smoothing, and Holts Damped trend method were used. Potato production is increasing in Bangladesh. It seems that the production of potatoes will continue to increase in the coming years. The growth rates of potato production in the whole period, period-1 and period-2 are 6.7, 2.7, and 9.3 respectively and CV's around the trend line are 40.28, 7.43, and 10.46 respectively. Therefore, potato production in Bangladesh is showing an increasing trend. It seems that the production of potatoes will continue to increase in the coming years. Potato production in Bangladesh is increasing and it is unstable. The government and numerous non-governmental organizations (NGOs) must work together to increase potato production.