Forecasting an invasive species’ distribution with global distribution data, local data, and physiological information

Abstract

Understanding invasive species distributions and potential invasions often requires broad‐scale information on the environmental tolerances of the species. Further, resource managers are often faced with knowing these broad‐scale relationships as well as nuanced environmental factors related to their landscape that influence where an invasive species occurs and potentially could occur. Using invasive buffelgrass (Cenchrus ciliaris), we developed global models and local models for Saguaro National Park, Arizona, USA, based on location records and literature on physiological tolerances to environmental factors to investigate whether environmental relationships of a species at a global scale are also important at local scales. In addition to correlative models with five commonly used algorithms, we also developed a model using a priori user‐defined relationships between occurrence and environmental characteristics based on a literature review. All correlative models at both scales performed well based on statistical evaluations. The user‐defined curves closely matched those produced by the correlative models, indicating that the correlative models may be capturing mechanisms driving the distribution of buffelgrass. Given climate projections for the region, both global and local models indicate that conditions at Saguaro National Park may become more suitable for buffelgrass. Combining global and local data with correlative models and physiological information provided a holistic approach to forecasting invasive species distributions.

Modelling European small pelagic fish distribution: Methodological insights

“…In complementarity with a multi-SDM approach, we think that researchers should examine species response curves during the evaluation process (e.g. Elith and Leathwick 2009, Jarnevich et al 2018, Erauskin-Extramiana et al 2019. As observed for Mediterranean horse mackerel (see details in Supplementary material 4), we invalidated response curves that were statistically significant but not in agreement with the ecological niche theory.…”

Developing an expert elicited simulation model to evaluate invasive species and fire management alternatives

“…Prior to the expert workshop, we conducted a literature review of the physiological limitations and life‐history traits of buffelgrass (Jarnevich et al. ; Appendix ) and collected available information on each parameter included in previous STSMs and from regional research (Frid et al. , Jarnevich et al.…”

“…The process to develop the SNP buffelgrass STSM included the following: eliciting expert knowledge about the system from local managers and researchers via an expert workshop; obtaining spatial information about buffelgrass habitat suitability (Jarnevich et al. ); and gathering existing data on buffelgrass locations and spread, local climate, and LANDFIRE fuel loads (LANDFIRE ; Fig. ).…”

“…-To parameterize model transitions, we used a combination of values from the literature and expert elicitation (O'Hagan et al 2006, Oakley and O'Hagan 2010, Martin et al 2012). Prior to the expert workshop, we conducted a literature review of the physiological limitations and life-history traits of buffelgrass (Jarnevich et al 2018; Appendix S1) and collected available information on each parameter included in previous STSMs and from regional research (Frid et al 2013, Jarnevich et al 2015. We also asked participants to be prepared to discuss buffelgrass dispersal, patch cover increase, patch expansion, seedbank dynamics, and treatment and detection effectiveness.…”

“…Spatial parameters.-We used a 0.25-ha cell size for spatial analyses in the STSM. A habitat suitability layer (Jarnevich et al 2018) defined where buffelgrass was able to establish, partitioning the desert ecosystem into susceptible and unsusceptible strata (Appendix S2: Fig. S1).…”