Forecasting and Tracking Volcanic Explosions using Shannon Entropy at Volcán de Colima.

Abstract

In this work we demonstrate that Shannon Entropy (SE) calculated on continuous seismic signals can be used efficiently in a volcanic monitoring system. We analysed three years of volcanic activity of Volcán de Colima, México, recorded between January 2015 and May 2017. This period includes two large explosions, with pyroclastic and lava flows, and intense activity of less energetic explosion, culminating with a period of quiescence. In order to confirm the success of our results, we used images of the Visual Monitoring system of Colima Volcano Observatory. Another of the objectives of this work is to show how the decrease in the SE values can be used to track minor explosive activity, helping Machine Learning algorithms to work more efficiently in the complex problem of distinguishing the explosion signals in the seismograms. We demonstrated the two big eruptions selected were forecasted successfully (6 and 2 days respectively) using the decay of the SE. We conclude that the SE could be used as a complementary tool in seismic volcano monitoring, showing its successful behaviour prior to energetic eruptions, giving time enough to alert the population and prepare for the consequences of an imminent and well predicted moment of the eruption.