Forecasting animal migration using SARIMAX: an efficient means of reducing silver eel mortality caused by turbines

Trancart, Thomas; Acou, Anthony; Oliveira, Eric de; Feunteun, Éric

doi:10.3354/esr00517

Cited by 44 publications

(66 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…Interestingly, it was not river discharge itself, but the relative variation of river discharge which was selected by the model as the main triggering factor. This result is consistent with Trancart et al (2013), whose study showed that rainfall triggers migration. It is indeed logical to assume that increased precipitation leads to a rising river flow phase.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

“…This has two main consequences. First, it confirms that, as proposed by Trancart et al (2013), temporary and targeted turbines shutdowns can be a useful means of mitigating the impact of hydroelectric power stations in systems in which the hydrology and migration process are similar to the Dronne River. In practice, such a measure requires two additional tools: a tool that predicts migration peaks 12-24 h in advance to comply with the operational delay for turbine shutdowns and a tool that estimates the distribution of eels within the river catchment to assess the number of eels likely to pass the obstacles.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 49%

“…However, it is easier to predict rainfall than turbidity or conductivity. Consequently, Trancart et al (2013) used rainfall in their model to forecast migration activity and subsequently propose periods of turbine shutdowns. River flow can also be predicted using rainfall-runoff models (Beven, 2011) as illustrated by flood prediction models (Toth et al, 2000;Nayak et al, 2005).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Various environmental factors have been proposed as triggering factors of the downstream migration of silver eels (Bruijs and Durif, 2009): turbidity (Verbiest et al, 2012), wind direction (Cullen and McCarthy, 2003), pH , conductivity (Durif, 2003;Verbiest et al, 2012), rainfall (Durif, 2003;Trancart et al, 2013), temperature (Vøllestad et al, 1986;Reckordt et al, 2014), atmospheric pressure (Acou et al, 2008), moon phase (Poole et al, 1990;Cullen and . Fig.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Some studies have tracked silver eels along fragmented watercourses to estimate escapement (Haraldstad et al, 1985;Jansen et al, 2007;Acou et al, 2008;Breukelaar et al, 2009;Verbiest et al, 2012;Piper et al, 2013;Marohn et al, 2014;Mccarthy et al, 2014;Reckordt et al, 2014). Other studies have focused on migration triggered by environmental factors, to predict migration activity and especially peaks of migration, and consequently when to shutdown turbines (Vøllestad et al, 1986;Trancart et al, 2013). One common aspect in these previous studies is that they make use of the same two types of data: telemetric tracking or daily abundance estimates (through either catching or counting).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Silver eel downstream migration in fragmented rivers: use of a Bayesian model to track movements triggering and duration★

Drouineau¹,

Bau²,

Alric³

et al. 2017

Aquat. Living Resour.

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-Obstacles in rivers are considered to be one of the main threats to diadromous fish. As a result of the recent collapse of the European eel, the European Commission introduced a Regulation, requiring to reduce all sources of anthropogenic mortality, including those caused by passing through hydropower turbines. Improving knowledge about migration triggers and processes is crucial to assess and mitigate the impact of obstacles. In our study, we tracked 97 tagged silver eels in a fragmented river situated in the Western France (the River Dronne). Using the movement ecology framework, and implementing a Bayesian state-space model, we confirmed the influence of river discharge on migration triggering and the distance travelled by fish. We also demonstrated that, in our studied area, there is a small window of opportunity for migration. Moreover, we found that obstacles have a significant impact on distance travelled. Combined with the small window, this suggests that assessment of obstacles impact on downstream migration should not be limited to quantifying mortality at hydroelectric facilities, but should also consider the delay induced by obstacles, and its effects on escapement. The study also suggests that temporary turbines shutdown may mitigate the impacts of hydropower facilities in rivers with migration process similar to those observed here.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 82%

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 49%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Silver eel downstream migration in fragmented rivers: use of a Bayesian model to track movements triggering and duration★

Drouineau¹,

Bau²,

Alric³

et al. 2017

Aquat. Living Resour.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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Development of an accurate model to predict the phenology of Atlantic salmon smolt spring migration

Teichert

Benitez

Dierckx

et al. 2020

Aquatic Conservation

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1. Changes in migration timing, resulting from the alteration in river continuity or the effect of climate change, can have major consequences on the population dynamics of diadromous fish. Forecasting the phenology of fish migration is thus critically important to implement management actions aimed at protecting fish during their migration. 2. In this study, an 11-year monitoring survey of Atlantic salmon smolts (Salmo salar) from the Ourthe River, Belgium, was analysed within a European Special Area of Conservation to improve the understanding of environment-induced spring migration. A logistic model was fitted to forecast smolt migration and to calculate phenological indicators for management, i.e. the onset, end, and duration of migration, while accounting for the influence of photoperiod, water temperature, and hydrological conditions. 3. The results indicated that the photo-thermal units accumulated by smolts above a 7 C temperature threshold was a relevant proxy to reflect the synergistic effect between temperature and photoperiod on smolt migration. After integrating the effect of river flow pulses, the model accurately explained the inter-annual changes in migration timing (R 2 = 0.95). The model predictions provide decisive management information to identify sensitive periods during which mitigation measures (e.g. hydropower turbine shutdown, river discharge management) should be conducted to promote smolt survival. 4. The model was used to predict phenological characteristics under future scenarios of climate change. The results suggest a joint effect of hydrological alterations and water warming. Temperature increases of 1-4 C were associated with earlier initiation of migration, 6-51 days earlier, and spring flood events greatly influenced the duration of the migration period. Accordingly, the combined effects of human-induced modifications of the hydrological regimes and increasing temperatures could result in a mismatch between the smolt and favourable survival conditions in the marine environment.

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Timing and pattern of annual silver eel migration in two European watersheds are determined by similar cues

Sandlund

Diserud

Poole

et al. 2017

Ecology and Evolution

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Many animals perform long‐distance migrations in order to maximize lifetime reproductive success. The European eel migrates several thousand kilometers between their feeding habitats in continental waters (fresh‐, brackish, and sea water) and their spawning area in the Sargasso Sea. Eels residing in freshwaters usually initiate their spawning migration as silver eels during autumn, triggered by diverse environmental cues. We analyzed the time series of silver eel downstream migration in Burrishoole, Ireland (1971–2015), and Imsa, Norway (1975–2015), to examine factors regulating the silver eel migration from freshwater to the sea. The migration season (90% of the run) generally lasted from 1 August to 30 November. Environmental factors acting in the months before migration impacted timing and duration of migration, likely through influencing the internal processes preparing the fish for migration. Once the migration had started, environmental factors impacted the day‐to‐day variation in number of migrants, apparently stimulating migration among those eels ready for migration. Both the day‐to‐day variation in the number of migrants and the onset of migration were described by nearly identical models in the two rivers. Variables explaining day‐to‐day variation were all associated with conditions that may minimize predation risk; number of migrants was reduced under a strong moon and short nights and increased during high and increasing water levels. Presence of other migrants stimulated migration, which further indicates that silver eel migration has evolved to minimize predation risk. The onset of migration was explained mainly by water levels in August. The models for duration of the migration season were less similar between the sites. Thus, the overall migration season seems governed by the need to reach the spawning areas in a synchronized manner, while during the actual seaward migration, antipredator behavior seems of overriding importance.

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Forecasting animal migration using SARIMAX: an efficient means of reducing silver eel mortality caused by turbines

Cited by 44 publications

References 35 publications

Silver eel downstream migration in fragmented rivers: use of a Bayesian model to track movements triggering and duration★

Silver eel downstream migration in fragmented rivers: use of a Bayesian model to track movements triggering and duration★

Development of an accurate model to predict the phenology of Atlantic salmon smolt spring migration

Timing and pattern of annual silver eel migration in two European watersheds are determined by similar cues

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