Forecasting atmospheric stability transitions over a high-elevation desert in the southwestern United States

Abstract

Forecasting the precise time of the morning and evening stability transition is important to both civilian and military meteorologists. In the civilian community this information can be used to initialize prognostic convective models. Other applications include enhancing (1) infrared sensor simulations and (2) high-energy laser propagation projects. The observed stability transition duration over a mid-latitude desert has ranged from less than 1 min to more than 20 min. This article presents desert stability transition parameters, the Stability Transition Forecast Model (STFM) development, two scenarios for modeling the transition, and an empirically derived equation quantifying the monthly (seasonal) effects for forecasting the morning and evening stability transitions over the Tularosa Basin in New Mexico. Explanations for the general seasonal curve shape are proposed, and possible reasons for why the solar cycle component is the greatest contributor to the ideal STFM algorithm are discussed.