Forecasting Building Energy Consumption in Seoul using ARIMA under Climate Change and Socioeconomic Scenarios

Abstract

For the Seoul Metropolitan Government to meet the goal of 2050 carbon neutrality, there is a crucial need to understand future building energy consumption for more informed policy-making. Seoul consists of 25 districts, which make up six communities. This study aims to predict residential electricity uses in six communities of Seoul Metropolitan City under different future development scenarios. A total of 25 prediction models corresponding to 25 districts in Seoul were constructed using seasonal ARIMA with exogenous variables. The models consider cooling degree days (CDD), heating degree days (HDD), total population, older adult ratio, and GRDP from 2010 to 2019 as predictive variables. Electricity consumption from residential buildings in each district at the end of the year 2050 was then estimated from the models under four development scenarios. The four scenarios were defined based on two SSP-RCP climate change scenarios and two Korean Statistical Information Service (KOSIS) socioeconomic scenarios. The forecasting results were aggregated at the community level in Seoul. The aggregated results indicated that even under the same sets of scenario assumptions, the trend of future residential energy change varies across different communities. Therefore, different measures should be taken when implementing community-level plans to reduce building energy.