Forecasting Capacity of ARIMA Models; A Study on Croatian Industrial Production and its Sub-sectors

Tomić, Daniel; Stjepanović, Saša

doi:10.1515/zireb-2017-0009

Cited by 8 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 5 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Unclassified

Order By: Relevance

“…It is mainly because univariate models often improve the predictive ability of their single component over short horizons. In that manner, ARIMA modeling could be used at least as a benchmark for more complex forecasting methods in predicting the movements of industrial production in Croatia" [4].…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Lockdown on India's Index of Industrial Production – Traditional and Deep Learning Statistical Approach

Patil

Jyothirani

Haragopal

2022

EJMATH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data is one of the important economic indicators that track the manufacturing activity of different sectors of an economy. In this paper, an attempt is made to forecast the IIP data using traditional and deep learning statistical approaches. The data from Apr-2012 to Feb-2020 is used for forecasting. The appropriate best model is evaluated by comparing mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The results of the study show that RNN is performing better than the other models i.e ARIMA (Traditional method), FFNN, and LSTM (ANN models). Therefore RNN model is used for forecasting. The forecasted values from Mar-2020 to Jun-2021 are compared with the actual IIP values and resulted in a clear decline in industrial production because of lockdown.

show abstract

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Lockdown on India's Index of Industrial Production – Traditional and Deep Learning Statistical Approach

Patil

Jyothirani

Haragopal

2022

EJMATH

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In Croatia, high orientation towards traditional industrial sectors and a low share of high value added activities (for example a low share of high technology products in exports) has indicated that the deindustrialization process is an even more challenging. This process was characterized by a reduction in the share of employment in the primary sector, by a growing employment in the secondary sector, but also by a significant reallocation of resources from the industrial sector to the service sector, additionally increasing the role of financial products and financial sectors relative to the industrial sector (Tomić and Stjepanović, 2017). The aim of this paper is to evaluate whether the two economic lanes in Croatia, namely financialization and industrialization, are mutually related and do they follow same linear or non-linear process.…”

Section: Dvosistemski Pristop K Razumevanju Odločanja »Generacije Y«mentioning

confidence: 99%

40th International Conference on Organizational Science Development Values Competencies and Changes in Organizations

Maletič¹,

Lovrenčić²,

Gubeljak³

et al. 2021

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The four decades of the International Scientific Conference on the Development of Organizational Sciences are a period that brought together the academic and professional public, students, esteemed guests. The time and space are fundamental components of human life. The time of the epidemic introduces uncertainty among the people. That is why the individual of today together with the whole society, can set the building blocks for the social interweaving of society, as we are used to. We are an organization of people. Relationships between employees in organizations are the starting point for guidelines for the development of organizational sciences. This year’s conference is entitled “Values, Competencies and Changes in Organizations”. We’ll focus on the individual and the organization, which with common values co-create the integration and progress of the society. An individual who’ll cope with changes in the organizational view and the wider society with the proper competence frame. Precisely because of the many changes that have befallen us as a society, the international conference calls for the exchange of views, opinions and, above all, scientific views on the development of organizations in the future. They will definitely be people. There will also be information and processes. All that binds and connects us for decades and will unite us in the common fight against today’s epidemiological situation. The challenge is not as great as our ideas and views for the organization and society of tomorrow.

show abstract

“…Bir diğer çalışma da Hırvat endüstriyel üretim verilerinin ARIMA modeli kullanarak kısa ve uzun vadeli tahminleri karşılaştırılmıştır. Çalışmanın sonucunda ARIMA modelinin tahminleme yeteneğinin yüksek olduğu ve kısa vadeli tahminleme yapmak hususunda başarılı olduğu tespit edilmiştir [23] Talaşlı imalat sektöründe dövme makinelerinden elde edilen günlük tezgâh performans verileri zaman serileri analiz yöntemlerinden ARIMA (0,0,3) ile tahminleme gerçekleştirilmiştir. Elde edilen bu tahmini performans verisinden tezgâhlarda üretilen adet sayısı (%17.7), tonaj miktarı (%9.5), bakım-arıza süresi, kalıp revizyon süresi (%48), adet başı tonaj oranı (%18) hata oranlarında tahmin edilmiştir.…”

Section: Teori̇k çErçeve Ve Hi̇potez (Therotical Framework and Hypothesis)unclassified

Talaşlı İmalat Sektöründe Zaman Serileri Kullanarak Üretim Etkililiğinin Tahmini

Aktaş¹,

Aydın

2018

Bilişim Teknolojileri Dergisi

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Günümüzde imalat sektöründe bulunan şirketlerin, üretim performansını, miktarını ve diğer değişkenleri tahmin edebilmesi rekabet ortamında rakiplerine ciddi bir avantaj sağlamalarına sebep olmaktadır. Üretim miktarlarının tahmin edilmesi tesisin gelecekteki giderlerini, üretim tezgâhlarındaki hata oranlarını ve karşılaşılacak krizlerin önceden tespit edilmesini sağlayarak verimlilik (etkililik) artışı sağlanmasına olanak tanımaktadır. Bu kapsamda talaşlı imalat sektöründe üretim performansının zaman serisi analizi kullanılarak yüksek doğrulukla ve hızlı bir şekilde tahmin edilmesi amaçlanmaktadır. Bunun için AR ve ARIMA metotları karşılaştırılarak uygun model seçimi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Seçilen model kullanılarak gerçeğe yakın tahmin değerlerine ulaşılmıştır. Modellenmiş üretim performansı değerinin üretim miktarı, üretim tonajı, üretilen parça başı ağırlık, kalıp revizyon süresi ve bakım arıza süresi değerlerinin her biri ile polinom regresyon yöntemi ile analizi yapılıp model oluşturulmuş ve performans tahmin değerinden yola çıkarak bu değerlerin her birisi için ileriye dönük tahmin edilmiştir. Bu modelin test MSE (Ortalama Karesel Hata), RMSE (Ortalama Karesel Hatanın Karekökü) ve MAPE (Ortalama Mutlak Hata yüzdesi) değerleri hesaplanmıştır. Elde edilen tahmini performans değerinden belirli ortalama hata payları ile tezgâhlarda üretilen adet sayısı, tonaj miktarı, bakım-arıza süresi, kalıp revizyon süresi, adet başı tonaj oranı gibi diğer verilerle ile ilgili tahminlerin yapılması sağlanmıştır.

show abstract

Forecasting Capacity of ARIMA Models; A Study on Croatian Industrial Production and its Sub-sectors

Abstract: As one of the most important indicator for monitoring the production in industry as

Cited by 8 publications

References 5 publications

Impact of Lockdown on India's Index of Industrial Production – Traditional and Deep Learning Statistical Approach

Impact of Lockdown on India's Index of Industrial Production – Traditional and Deep Learning Statistical Approach

40th International Conference on Organizational Science Development Values Competencies and Changes in Organizations

Talaşlı İmalat Sektöründe Zaman Serileri Kullanarak Üretim Etkililiğinin Tahmini

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About