Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions in BRICS countries by exponential cumulative grey model

Guo, Jianlong; Liu, Wei; Tu, Leping; Chen, Yan

doi:10.1016/j.egyr.2021.10.075

Cited by 20 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…The 2011 National Development Plan pursues the idea of a green economy fostered by a competitive and efficient energy sector, in which renewables play a key role. Even though some traditional coal-fired power plants have been closed, more efforts should be made since coal combustion is still prevalent in power generation (Guo et al 2021 ). More recently, South African authorities approved the Integrated Resource Plan in October 2019.…”

Section: Short Notes On Brics and Indonesian Climate Policymentioning

confidence: 99%

A long-run convergence analysis of aerosol precursors, reactive gases, and aerosols in the BRICS and Indonesia: is a global emissions abatement agenda supported?

Romero‐Ávila

Omay

2022

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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This article examines the hypothesis of deterministic emissions convergence for a panel of the BRICS and Indonesia to advanced countries’ emissions levels as well as to Sweden (which is a country that has clearly gone through decoupling) using a novel dataset with ten series of annual estimates of anthropogenic emissions comprising aerosols, aerosol precursor and reactive compounds, and carbon dioxide from 1820 to 2018. For that purpose, we employ four novel panel unit root tests allowing for several forms of time-dependent and state-dependent nonlinearity. The evidence supports deterministic convergence following a linear process for carbon dioxide, whereas the adjustment is asymmetric and nonlinear for carbon monoxide. Methane and nitrogen oxides exhibit logistic smooth transition converging dynamics. In contrast, black carbon, ammonia, nitrous oxide, non-methane volatile organic compounds, organic carbon, and sulfur dioxide emissions diverge. These results have implications for the abatement of greenhouse gases emissions at the global level, given the high share of emissions of the BRICS.

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Section: Short Notes On Brics and Indonesian Climate Policymentioning

confidence: 99%

A long-run convergence analysis of aerosol precursors, reactive gases, and aerosols in the BRICS and Indonesia: is a global emissions abatement agenda supported?

Romero‐Ávila

Omay

2022

Environ Sci Pollut Res

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“…∫ 𝑥 (1) (𝑡)𝑑𝑡 = 0.5( 𝑘 𝑘−1 𝑥 (1) (𝑘) − 𝑥 (1) (𝑘 − 1)) = 𝑧 (1) (𝑘) koşulu kullanılarak Eşitlik (19) ve Eşitlik ( 22) 𝑥 (0) (𝑘) + 𝑎𝑧 (1) 𝑘 = 𝑏 + 𝑐(𝑒 − 1)𝑒 −𝑘 (23) şeklinde yazılabilir.…”

Section: Teorem 11unclassified

“…Gri tahmin teorisi disiplinler arası bir bilimsel alandır ve son otuz yılda kısmen bilinmeyen parametrelere sahip birçok sisteme uygulanmıştır. Gri tahmin modelleri, endüstri, bilim ve teknoloji, ekonomi, enerji tüketimi ve diğer alanlar gibi çeşitli alanlara yaygın ve başarılı bir şekilde uygulanmıştır [11][12][13][14][15][16][17][18][19][20]. Gri modelleme yöntemleri daha çok üstel olarak artan sayı dizilerinin tahminlerinde etkili sonuçlar vermektedir.…”

Section: Introductionunclassified

Application of GM (1,1) and EXGM (1,1) Forecasting Models to Turkey's Research and Development Expenditures

AKYÜZ

Bilgil

2022

Aksaray University Journal of Science and Engineering

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Disiplinler arası bir bilim alanı olan Gri sistem Teorisi az sayıda veri kullanarak bilinmeyen sistemlerin davranışını tahmin etmektedir ve birçok alana başarı ile uygulanmıştır. Bu çalışmada ise Gri Sistem Teorisi Türkiye’nin Araştırma ve Geliştirme (Ar-Ge) harcamalarını tahmin etmek için kullanılmıştır. 2011-2020 yılları arasındaki Ar-Ge harcamaları verileri Türkiye İstatistik Kurumu’ndan alınarak 2021-2030 yıllarının tahmini Standart Gri Model (GM (1,1)) ve Üstel Gri Model (EXGM (1,1)) kullanılarak yapılmıştır. Her iki modelin tahmin değerlerindeki hata ve korelasyon sonuçları karşılaştırılmıştır. 2011-2020 yılları arasındaki verileri kullanarak, gerçek ve tahmin değeri arasındaki yüzde bağıl hata (RPE) ve ortalama yüzde bağıl hata (MAPE) belirlenmiştir. Sonuç olarak MAPE değeri GM (1,1) modeli ile % 2,95 ve EXGM (1,1) modeli ile % 1,48 olarak hesaplanmıştır. Gerçek değer ve tahmini değerin arasındaki korelasyonu gösteren R2 değerleri sıra ile GM(1,1) modeli için 0,9974 ve EXGM (1,1) modeli için 0,9985 olarak belirlenmiştir. Hesaplanan bağıl hata ve R2 değerleri ile tahminin kesinliği ortaya konmuştur. Buna göre 2021-2030 yılları için Ar-Ge harcamaları tahmin edilmiştir. EXGM (1,1) yönteminin tahmin kesinliğinin daha yüksek olduğu belirlenmiştir. Sonuç olarak önümüzdeki on yıl içerisinde Ülkemizin Ar-Ge harcamalarının üstel bir şekilde artacağı öngörülmektedir.

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“…, 2023a) also satisfy the new information priority principle. Guo et al. (2021) proposed a r-order exponential accumulation generating operator (r-EAGO).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A matrixed nonlinear exponential grey Bernoulli model for interval number prediction of crude oil futures prices

Cang,

Zeng,

Yan

2023

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PurposeThe effective prediction of crude oil futures prices can provide a reference for relevant enterprises to make production plans and investment decisions. To the nonlinearity, high volatility and uncertainty of the crude oil futures price, a matrixed nonlinear exponential grey Bernoulli model combined with an exponential accumulation generating operator (MNEGBM(1,1)) is proposed in this paper.Design/methodology/approachFirst, the original sequence is processed by the exponential accumulation generating operator to weaken its volatility. The nonlinear grey Bernoulli and exponential function models are combined to fit the preprocessed sequence. Then, the parameters in MNEGBM(1,1) are matrixed, so the ternary interval number sequence can be modeled directly. Marine Predators Algorithm (MPA) is chosen to optimize the nonlinear parameters. Finally, the Cramer rule is used to derive the time recursive formula.FindingsThe predictive effectiveness of the proposed model is verified by comparing it with five comparison models. Crude oil futures prices in Cushing, OK are predicted and analyzed from 2023/07 to 2023/12. The prediction results show it will gradually decrease over the next six months.Originality/valueCrude oil futures prices are highly volatile in the short term. The use of grey model for short-term prediction is valuable for research. For the data characteristics of crude oil futures price, this study first proposes an improved model for interval number prediction of crude oil futures prices.

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Forecasting carbon dioxide emissions in BRICS countries by exponential cumulative grey model

Cited by 20 publications

References 34 publications

A long-run convergence analysis of aerosol precursors, reactive gases, and aerosols in the BRICS and Indonesia: is a global emissions abatement agenda supported?

A long-run convergence analysis of aerosol precursors, reactive gases, and aerosols in the BRICS and Indonesia: is a global emissions abatement agenda supported?

Application of GM (1,1) and EXGM (1,1) Forecasting Models to Turkey's Research and Development Expenditures

A matrixed nonlinear exponential grey Bernoulli model for interval number prediction of crude oil futures prices

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