Forecasting East Belitung Regency Rainfall Data by Reviewing Heteroscedasticity

Abstract

East Belitung Regency is one of the regencies located on Belitung Island. East Belitung Regency has a tropical and wet climate with a fairly high variation of rainfall. Rainfall forecasting is an important thing to model because of the many uses of rainfall forecasting results such as irrigation planning, flood prediction, erosion prediction and others. This study aims to predict rainfall for the next 5 years by using a time series model by reviewing the heteroscedasticity of the data. From the results of the analysis of rainfall in East Belitung Regency with a seasonal pattern. The best model used is ARIMA (0, l, l)(2, l, l)12 with insignificant heteroscedasticity.