Forecasting electricity consumption volumes in Ukraine considering population migration due to military actions

Abstract

The peculiarities of energy consumption in the field of housing and communal services are characterized by a high dependence on the population's demand for various services provided by enterprises and institutions of various subordination. The volume of fuel and energy usage depends on the lifestyle, population size, structure, and other demographic characteristics. Household electricity consumption norms depend on the social level of comfort provision for the population. In Ukraine, the onset of war has led to significant population displacement, altering the usual way of life and comfort level. This research aims to analyze the impact of population migration due to wartime on electricity consumption volumes for various uses. Data on population size before and after full-scale invasion by regions and countrywide are analyzed. Absolute population changes in each region and the country as a whole are determined. Migration patterns and their influence on changes in electricity consumption are studied. The distribution of migrants by regions and changes in electricity consumption volumes in these regions are examined. The main significant factors affecting population energy consumption during wartime are identified. The average annual electricity consumption per capita is calculated, and comparisons are made with major European countries. Trends in the structure of electricity consumption by the population during the retrospective period are analyzed, along with potential influencing factors. Keywords: energy consumption, specific electricity consumption per capita, population, migration, forcibly displaced persons.