Forecasting High-Speed Railway Demand in the Absence of Air Competition – A Case Study

Abstract

The main competitor of air transportation is High-Speed Railway (HSR). However, in an oil-exporting country with low fuel prices and strong car dependence, HSR can face fierce competition with private cars and even buses. There is little previous research that forecast modal share in this situation. The case study of this research is the Tehran-Hamedan route in Iran that has high travel demand due to several historical and economic reasons and in the absence of air transportation, building the HSR in this route attracted foreign investment. To analyse the travel behaviour of passengers after the introduction of HSR, 409 stated and revealed preferences were collected in a self-designed questionnaire. Multinomial logit (MNL) model and mixed logit (ML) model were developed and modal share of each mode of transportation were forecasted up to 2045. HSR modal share is compared with other routes of the world to see the impact of air competition. The overall modal share of railway in this route is estimated to reach 64%, which is close to the average of major HSR routes globally (around 60%). Therefore, private cars can be a fierce competitor for HSR when there is no air link on the route and fuel is rather cheap.