Forecasting imports with information from abroad

Grimme, Christian; Lehmann, Robert; Noeller, Marvin

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2021.02.013

Cited by 5 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…In the context of global trade, these factors can include the economic conditions in other countries that import goods and services, so the factors that affect imports include the Gross Domestic Product (Adewuyi, 2016), the income per capita (Markusen, 2013), consumer confidence (Grimme, Lehmann, & Noeller, 2021;Pascucci, 2018), the purchasing power parity (Taylor & Taylor, 2004), the exchange rate (Kim, 2017;Nishimura & Sun, 2018), the real effective exchange rate (Liau & Geetha, 2020), and the shipping waiting time (Fugazza & Hoffmann, 2017).…”

Section: Demand and Supply Side Of International Tradementioning

confidence: 99%

Determinants of world trade stagnation in three regions

Nikensari¹,

Puspitasari²,

Setyadharma³

et al. 2021

Journal of International Studies

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Sharp decline in the world trade occurred again, after in 2018 it had increased, not least in the countries of free trade areas. This empirical study aims to map and compare the factors that influence export and import performance in the regions of Southeast Asia (AFTA), Europe (EEA), and Latin America (LAIA) before the Covid-19 pandemic crisis. The data has been collected from various sources of both official and private institutions for the time period of 2011-2019. Multiple regression analysis of panel data is used to provide greater and more informative observations and reduce the collinearity of the independent variables. The results show that the performance of exports and imports in the three regions in question shows a stagnant trend and is likely to decline in 2019, especially in part of exports performance. In all the regions in question, export performance is influenced by strengthening or weakening of the real effective exchange rate (REER) and the number of manufactured products, while import performance is more influenced by GDP per capita and REER too. Several other independent factors were also studied, but they did

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Section: Demand and Supply Side Of International Tradementioning

confidence: 99%

Determinants of world trade stagnation in three regions

Nikensari¹,

Puspitasari²,

Setyadharma³

et al. 2021

Journal of International Studies

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In similar directions, Christian Grimme et al believe that domestic import demand should be reflected in the expected export development of its major trading partners, therefore they choose to use the Import Climate as an indicator to predict imports [9]. In order to improve the accuracy of import predictions, Wang et al established a Non-linear autoregressive neural network ARIMA [10].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

U.S. Imports Price of Goods Forecasting by Customs Basis from China using SARIMA Model

2024

HSET

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Changes in the import price of goods will have an influence on the global economy and trade, corporate decision-making, and many other aspects. Therefore, the aim of this research is to forecast the future customs prices of US imports from China. The data comes from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. It can provide an important reference for enterprises, government, and academia to make better decisions. In this paper, due to the strong seasonality, the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model is a common technique that is generally used in analyzing and predicting seasonality and stationary time series data. Using the Sarima model to predict U.S. imports of goods from January 1986 to December 2016 and to compare the predicted data with original data. To identify the best model and find out the highest accuracy of the model, this paper utilizes the Grid Search method and calculates Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE), and adapted MAPE (AMAPE) value as the criterion for selection. The result shows that in the next six months, the amount will still be seasonal, but the overall trend will show small fluctuations and will not change much.

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The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey

Lehmann

2022

J Bus Cycle Res

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The ifo Institute is Germany’s largest business survey provider, with the ifo Business Climate Germany as one of the most important leading indicators for gross domestic product. However, the ifo Business Survey is not solely limited to the Business Climate and also delivers a multitude of further indicators to forecast several important economic variables. This paper gives a literature overview over existing studies that deal with the forecasting power of various ifo indicators both for gross domestic product and further economic variables such as exports. Overall, the various indicators from the ifo Business Survey can be seen as leading indicators for a multitude of variables representing the German economy, making them a powerful tool both for an in-depth business cycle diagnosis and for applied forecasting work.

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Forecasting imports with information from abroad

Cited by 5 publications

References 25 publications

Determinants of world trade stagnation in three regions

Determinants of world trade stagnation in three regions

U.S. Imports Price of Goods Forecasting by Customs Basis from China using SARIMA Model

The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey

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