Forecasting Method for Long-Distance Rail Passengers' Demand Fluctuations with Independent Component Analysis

Matsumoto, Ryosuke; Okuda, Daiki; Fukasawa, Noriko

doi:10.1541/ieejias.138.655

Cited by 1 publication

(2 citation statements)

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“…Examples of estimated demand are shown in Table 3. We developed a method to estimate such demand by utilizing the demand estimation method to which independent component analysis is applied, described in [5]. Independent component analysis is a computational method for separating a superposition of multiple waves into original waves, which is utilized for finding out hidden factors or components from multivariate data.…”

Section: Demand Estimation Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In Fig. 1 Outline of method to calculate DTSQ Table 3 Examples of estimated demand [5], the authors treat the variation of demand over time as waves and apply FastICA (an efficient algorithm for independent component analysis) to the waves corresponding to multiple days. It enables simultaneous estimation of independent components and mixing coefficients.…”

Section: Demand Estimation Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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<b>Yield Management Method Focused on Discount Ticket Sales Quota</b>

Nakagawa¹,

Suzuki²,

Matsumoto³

et al. 2020

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One approach for increasing the revenue of railway undertakings is to adopt yield management techniques, by setting quotas for discount ticket sales of reserved seats on express trains. We developed a method to calculate the optimum sales quota, incorporating estimations for the demand of various discount tickets and purchase behavior of passengers with the next-best-option when they were not able to buy their desired ticket. We conducted a trial sale by applying the calculated sales quota into the actual seat reservation system and confirmed that the method can increase revenues and facilitate decision-making for setting sales quotas.

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Section: Demand Estimation Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Demand Estimation Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%