Forecasting of the Main Segments of the Financial Market of Ukraine

Abstract

The article analyzes and builds economic and mathematical models for forecasting the main segments of the financial market of Ukraine:: the banking market; stock market; insurance market. The role of the financial market in modern civilized society is huge. Its functions include the mobilization of capital, its distribution among industries, control and support of the reproductive process, as well as increasing the efficiency of the economic system as a whole. The turning point for the Ukrainian financial market was 2022, namely the beginning of a full-scale Russian invasion, which led to the isolation of the financial market of Ukraine due to the introduction of martial law. In order to identify the key challenges for the development of the financial market, it is necessary to forecast the dynamics of its main segments using the tools of economic and mathematical modeling. A feature of the development of the domestic financial market is that the main part of the state’s financial resources is concentrated in such subjects of the financial system as deposit (commercial) banks; non-deposit financial intermediaries (insurance companies); subsidiary financial corporations (stock exchanges). According to the constructed forecasting models, it can be concluded that, all things being equal, in 2023 and 2024, the tendency to decrease the number of operating banks will continue and will be 59 and 54, respectively. As for the share of commercial banks with domestic capital, it will remain at the same level in 2023 and decrease by 4% in 2024. The number of insurance companies will decrease to 111 in 2023 and increase by 8 in 2024. Regarding the size of their assets, in 2023 there will be a decrease to the level of UAH 68,557 million, and a slight increase to the level of UAH 69,283 million in 2024. The share of the exchange market in the total volume of trades on the securities market will increase to 62% in 2022 and to 66% in 2023.