Forecasting Reservoir Management Through Life Cycle Assessment: Case Study Marañón Basin

Abstract

Integrated management is one of the crucial conditions to determine and carry out an effective monitoring of reserves, which have exogenous and endogenous conditions, valued in oil assets. These assets are strongly influenced by CAPEX, OPEX, volume of hydrocarbons, and oil price; this one last has been affected by a significant volatility in the last period, hauling us an intense slowdown in the short, medium and long-term investment, creating an unattractive risk environment to investors. A well-structured integrated assessment could give us a greater intensity in investments, provided that the field is considered from a long-term point of view. It must be analyze with the criteria of rate of return, royalty rate assessment and economic effect applying the methodology of the prospective increase in the annual inference (0.650%), monthly (0.645%) and daily. Similarly, those values must be corrected with progressive breaks every five year in the WTI price Forecast, promoting the reduction of risk inherent to the variables of the extractive activity. For the assessment of a Block which has several million cumulative barrels and proven reserves, it has been considered to fix a reserves replacement rate of 100%. In this sense, a curve that honors 100% refund of reserves each year was plotted. With the right considerations, the international oil price will not be a conditional to stop the life of the projects, and this way for the OPEX in the reduction of staff for operating costs. The case study is a light/heavy oil field located in the Marañon Basin in the North Peruvian Amazon. The development of this field has adverse conditions in the commercialization of its disaggregated reserves, transportation, logistics, socio-environmental policies, high water cut and specially the use of a traditional methodology of management not according to asset management during its life cycle and its contractual period. We propose a new integrated management approach for the monetization of active oil assets and the characterization of proven, probable and possible reserves by level of royalties during time contract for the initial financing of the projects. Likewise, design workflows to integrate production information to numerical models, maximizing the value of the asset from short-term measures (optimization of production and workover of wells), medium-term (locations infill drilling) and long term (infill drilling & extension drilling). A global outlook of the integrated management of the reservoir will give us a great contribution to national production under the criteria of restitution rate and, its transcendental role in the economy of the country expressed in macroeconomic indicators.

Decision support methods and applications in the upstream oil and gas sector

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