2023
DOI: 10.1111/twec.13518
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Forecasting stability and growth pact compliance using machine learning

Kéa Baret,
Amélie Barbier‐Gauchard,
Théophilos Papadimitriou

Abstract: The 2011 reform of the Stability and Growth Pact (1996) strengthened the European Commission's monitoring of EU member states' public finance. Failure to comply with the 3% limit on public deficit triggers an audit. In this paper, we present a machine learning based forecasting model for compliance with the 3% limit. We use data from 2006 to 2018 (a turbulent period including the Global Financial Crisis and the Sovereign Debt Crisis) for the 28 EU member states. After identifying 8 features as predictors among… Show more

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