Forecasting the development of mechanical engineering using the system dynamics method

Abstract

At modern conditions of world economy tendencies, the connections between subjects of economy are becoming more difficult and closer. In particular, if in the past were spread hard forms of private ownership of enterprises at present-day world is going conversion to more flexible and mobile composition of subjects' activities. Computer simulation modeling is giving the best results at the areas were the participants of social and economic activities are spending significant efforts and sufficiently much time for visuality playing and analysis of possible variants of the development of the events. The more difficult is the situation the more objects, factors, and possible variants of events' progress is necessary to play in different combinations between together and bigger effect possible to expect from application of simulation model for analyzing of the situation and for searching and making optimized decisions. The application of system dynamics method allows executing forecasting of economic agents including the sectors of economy.