Forecasting the economic value of an Enterovirus 71 (EV71) vaccine

Abstract

Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is a growing public health concern, especially in Asia. A surge of EV71 cases in 2008 prompted authorities in China to go on national alert. While there is currently no treatment for EV71 infections, vaccines are under development. We developed a computer simulation model to determine the potential economic value of an EV71 vaccine for children (<5 years old) in China. Our results suggest that routine vaccination in China (EV71 infection incidence 0.04%) may be cost-effective when vaccine cost is $25 and efficacy ≥70% or cost is $10 and efficacy ≥ 50%. For populations with higher infection risk (≥ 0.4%), a $50 or $75 vaccine would be highly cost-effective even when vaccine efficacy is as low as 50%.

Disease burden of enterovirus 71 in rural central China: A community-based survey

“…On the other hand, the economic considerations and disease burden were vital for guiding new vaccine introduction for the pediatric population. 31 Our study provides the first comprehensive assessment of the economic and health burden of EV71 infection in China.…”

Is a multivalent hand, foot, and mouth disease vaccine feasible?

“…It has been forecasted that routine immunization with a 70% efficacious EV-A71 vaccine sold at 25 US dollars/ dose would be of great economic value. 195 Another recent study reports that immunization with an EV-A71 vaccine would be cost-effective if vaccination costs were US$75 per dose for 90% efficacy. 194 With this profit margin and the new emerging vaccine markets in the Asia-Pacific region, the global vaccine companies should become interested in manufacturing monovalent, bivalent and ultimately multivalent HFMD vaccines.…”

Tolerability and immunogenicity of an inactivated enterovirus 71 vaccine in Chinese healthy adults and children

“…9 Thus, the only means to prevent EV71 infection is through hand washing or avoidance of contact between infected and susceptible individuals, which with limited efficacy. 2 Consequently, the development of safe and effective EV71 vaccines was in an urgent need.…”