Forecasting the Spreading of COVID-19 across Nine Countries from Europe, Asia, and the American Continents Using the ARIMA Models

Abstract

Since mid-November 2019, when the first SARS-CoV-2-infected patient was officially reported, the new coronavirus has affected over 10 million people from which half a million died during this short period. There is an urgent need to monitor, predict, and restrict COVID-19 in a more efficient manner. This is why Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models have been developed and used to predict the epidemiological trend of COVID-19 in Ukraine, Romania, the Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Bulgaria, Hungary, USA, Brazil, and India, these last three countries being otherwise the most affected presently. To increase accuracy, the daily prevalence data of COVID-19 from 10 March 2020 to 10 July 2020 were collected from the official website of the Romanian Government GOV.RO, World Health Organization (WHO), and European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) websites. Several ARIMA models were formulated with different ARIMA parameters. ARIMA (1, 1, 0), ARIMA (3, 2, 2), ARIMA (3, 2, 2), ARIMA (3, 1, 1), ARIMA (1, 0, 3), ARIMA (1, 2, 0), ARIMA (1, 1, 0), ARIMA (0, 2, 1), and ARIMA (0, 2, 0) models were chosen as the best models, depending on their lowest Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values for Ukraine, Romania, the Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Bulgaria, Hungary, USA, Brazil, and India (4.70244, 1.40016, 2.76751, 2.16733, 2.98154, 2.11239, 3.21569, 4.10596, 2.78051). This study demonstrates that ARIMA models are suitable for making predictions during the current crisis and offers an idea of the epidemiological stage of these regions.

Aplication of ARIMA Model for Forecasting Additional Positive Cases of Covid-19 in Jember Regency

“…In Figure 4.6, the plot of the data forecasting results using the ARIMA model (1,2,3) is shown below. (1,2,3). It can be seen that the data forecast results move closer to the actual data, although they are not exactly the same.…”

“…However, after analyzing and estimating using several models, we obtained the following results: In Figure .5 above, we can see that from the correlogram of residuals, the ACF and PACF plots no longer indicated any lag. Thus, it can be said that there is no autocorrelation in the residuals of the ARIMA model (1,2,3). Therefore, it can be said that the ARIMA model (1,2,3) is a good model Based on this model, we will conduct data forecasting.…”

“…This is why the Automatic Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model has been successfully applied at a much larger scale in various fields, mainly due to its easy-to-use concept and utility of algorithms. [3]. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is a popular method for forecasting univariate time series dataset.…”

Application of machine learning time series analysis for prediction COVID-19 pandemic

“…ARIMA (1, 1, 0), ARIMA (3, 2, 2), ARIMA (3, 2, 2), ARIMA (3, 1, 1), ARIMA (1, 0, 3), ARIMA ((1, 2), 0), ARIMA (1, 1, 0), ARIMA (0, 2, 1), and ARIMA (0, 2, 0) models are selected as the best models, depending on their average absolute percentage error (MAPE) are reduced the most)), which are Ukraine, Romania, Republic of Moldova, Serbia, Bulgaria, Hungary, the USA, Brazil, and India (4.70244, 1.40011, 2.67551, 2.16373, 2.98154, 2.11139, 3.21569, 4.10596, and 2.78051). This survey shows that the ARIMA model is reasonable for expectations in current emergencies and provides ideas for the epidemiological stage of these regions (Ilie et al 2020 ). KırbaşI, SözenA, Tuncer AD, and Kazancıoğlu F. et al confirmed that the COVID-19 instances in Denmark, Belgium, Germany, France, the UK, Finland, Switzerland, and Turkey have passed the autoregression integrated moving average (ARIMA), non-linear autoregression neural network (NARNN), and long-term memory (LSTM) methods.…”

Forecasting COVID-19 Confirmed Cases Using Empirical Data Analysis in Korea

“…Kufel [ 23 ] presented ARIMA to forecast the rate of infection in 32 European countries over the next seven days. In addition, there is a variety of research that studies the impact of COVID-19 [ 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 30 ].…”