Forecasting timelines of quantum computing

Abstract

We consider how to forecast progress in the domain of quantum computing. For this purpose we collect a dataset of quantum computer systems to date, scored on their physical qubits and gate error rate, and we define an index combining both metrics, the generalized logical qubit.We study the relationship between physical qubits and gate error rate, and tentatively conclude that they are positively correlated (albeit with some room for doubt), indicating a frontier of development that trades-off between them.We also apply a log-linear regression on the metrics to provide a tentative upper bound on how much progress can be expected over time. Within the (generally optimistic) assumptions of our model, including the key assumption that exponential progress in qubit count and gate fidelity will continue, we estimate that that proof-of-concept fault-tolerant computation based on superconductor technology is unlikely (<5% probability) to be exhibited before 2026, and that quantum devices capable of factoring RSA-2048 are unlikely (<5% probability) to exist before 2039. It is of course possible that these milestones will in fact be reached earlier, but that this would require faster progress than has yet been seen.

Assessing the Needs of the Quantum Industry

“…The quantum industry could partner with educational programs in order to provide noncoursework skill-based experience and training, such as summer internships. Finally, we must caution educators and students that the new wave of the QIST industry is still young and there are many unknowns about its future [20]. Notably, different skills may be required as an industry passes through the different stages of its growth and maturation [21].…”

Modeling Short-Range Microwave Networks to Scale Superconducting Quantum Computation

“…A recent meta-analysis [12] begins to quantify the tradeoff between qubit number and noise rates. These authors estimate the correlation between qubit number and error as within the interval (−0.11, 0.48) with a confidence of 0.84 that the correlation is positive.…”

“…= 0, corresponding to no excess noise for larger chips. Since our analysis specifically considers Falcon processors, we do not attempt to incorporate the broader numerical estimates from [12]. Our bounds on ∆ inf id.…”

“…NISQ qubits are characterized by their sensitivity to interactions with their environment and each other, and the gates and measurements required for meaningful computation are implemented with imperfect, errorprone operations. To achieve the realm of usefulness for quantum devices, many more qubits, approximately one million or more, and lower noise figures are essential [12]. Concerningly, as noted in [12], "quantum computer designers face a trade-off between trying to optimize for quantum computers with many physical qubits and quantum computers with very low gate error rate.…”

“…To achieve the realm of usefulness for quantum devices, many more qubits, approximately one million or more, and lower noise figures are essential [12]. Concerningly, as noted in [12], "quantum computer designers face a trade-off between trying to optimize for quantum computers with many physical qubits and quantum computers with very low gate error rate. "…”