Forecasting tropical cyclone tornadoes and impacts: Report from IWTC-X

Carroll-Smith, Dereka; Green, Benjamin W.; Edwards, Roger; Bai, Lanqiang; Litta, A.J.; Huang, Xianxiang; Pattie, Lauren; Overpeck, Scott; McCaul, Eugene W.

doi:10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.06.003

Cited by 3 publications

(7 citation statements)

References 40 publications

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“…While TC‐spawned tornado was seldomly observed near the south China coast, the meteorological factors contributing to the formation of waterspout related to Koinu were found consistent with the results of past studies by Carroll‐Smith et al. (2023), Schneider and Sharp (2007), and Edwards (2012).…”

Section: Tc‐spawned Waterspout and Its Formation Environmentsupporting

confidence: 90%

“…Further, some of the precursor requirements for tornado touchdowns as mentioned in Schneider and Sharp (2007) were observed in this case including a hook shape signature in the radar reflectivity image (Figure 15a) and the presence of a TVS (SRV) difference is about 26.5 m/s, which was a stronger indicator of tornadogenesis. While TC-spawned tornado was seldomly observed near the south China coast, the meteorological factors contributing to the formation of waterspout related to Koinu were found consistent with the results of past studies by Carroll-Smith et al (2023), Schneider and Sharp (2007), and Edwards (2012). Earth and Space Science 10.1029/2023EA003366…”

Section: Tc-spawned Waterspout and Its Formation Environmentsupporting

confidence: 86%

“…The waterspout associated with Koinu can be regarded as a TC spawned tornado. Carroll-Smith et al (2023) and Edwards (2012) pointed out several factors favorable to the formation of TC tornadoes which were found applicable in this case. These included (a) the waterspout was formed over the northeastern quadrant relative to Koinu's center due to climatologically enhanced instability and shear in that region, (b) SZWR's radar image (Figure 15c) suggested the presence of shallow-topped "miniature" supercell which was typically formed under high shear and helicity environment as well as concentration of buoyancy in the lowest few kilometers above ground, (c) the presence of baroclinic boundaries (in this case the Dangan islands or broadly speaking the coastal areas of Guangdong) providing stronger horizontal temperature gradient and higher lowlevel shear for spawning tornado.…”

Section: Tc-spawned Waterspout and Its Formation Environmentmentioning

confidence: 66%

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Multi‐Platform Observations of Severe Typhoon Koinu

He,

Chan,

Choy

et al. 2024

Earth and Space Science

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Severe Typhoon Koinu passed south of Hong Kong on 8 and 9 October 2023, triggering the issuance of the Increasing Gale or Storm Signal No. 9, the second highest tropical cyclone (TC) warning signal in Hong Kong. Koinu was a difficult case for TC warning service due to its compact size and rather erratic movement over the coastal waters of Guangdong. To monitor Koinu's movement and wind structure, the Hong Kong Observatory utilized various observational platforms, including meteorological aircraft, ocean radar, and synthetic aperture radar on polar orbiting satellites. The paper presents major observations derived from these measurements. The aircraft probe and dropsonde data suggested boundary layer inflow, warm core structure, eyewall updraft, and high turbulence in the eyewall of the typhoon. The weather radar observations indicated the occurrence of a waterspout in the vicinity of the typhoon. Additionally, the study highlights the forecasting performance of the AI‐based Pangu‐Weather model, which could outperform the conventional global numerical weather prediction models in forecasting TC track in the region. The documentation of these observations aims to provide valuable references for weather forecasters and stimulate further research on forecasting this type of tropical cyclone.

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Section: Tc‐spawned Waterspout and Its Formation Environmentsupporting

confidence: 90%

Section: Tc-spawned Waterspout and Its Formation Environmentsupporting

confidence: 86%

Section: Tc-spawned Waterspout and Its Formation Environmentmentioning

confidence: 66%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Multi‐Platform Observations of Severe Typhoon Koinu

He,

Chan,

Choy

et al. 2024

Earth and Space Science

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“…A similar large‐sample analysis of tornadic lower‐tropospheric mesocyclone proxies in WoFS compared to observed radar data should also be undertaken, although recent case studies suggest that these forecasts may be less skillful, especially with increasing forecast lead time (T. A. Jones et al., 2019; Y. Wang et al., 2022). Verifying the forecasts of the structure and location of TC outer rainbands would also be useful, since most tornadoes occur there (Carroll‐Smith et al., 2023; Edwards, 2012). Nonetheless, our incomplete physical understanding of the response of the TC rainbands to landfall may make the associated forecasts prone to particular uncertainty (Alford et al., 2020; May, 1996).…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Assessing the Fidelity of Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Convective‐Scale Environments in the Warn‐On‐Forecast System Using Radiosondes

Schenkel,

Jones,

Waugh

2024

JGR Atmospheres

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Forecasts of tropical cyclone (TC) tornadoes are less skillful than their non‐TC counterparts at all lead times. The development of a convection‐allowing regional ensemble, known as the Warn‐on‐Forecast System (WoFS), may help improve short‐fused TC tornado forecasts. As a first step, this study investigates the fidelity of convective‐scale kinematic and thermodynamic environments to a preliminary set of soundings from WoFS forecasts for comparison with radiosondes for selected 2020 landfalling TCs. Our study shows reasonable agreement between TC convective‐scale kinematic environments in WoFS versus observed soundings at all forecast lead times. Nonetheless, WoFS is biased toward weaker than observed TC‐relative radial winds, and stronger than observed near‐surface tangential winds with weaker winds aloft, during the forecast. Analysis of storm‐relative helicity (SRH) shows that WoFS underestimates extreme observed values. Convective‐scale thermodynamic environments are well simulated for both temperature and dewpoint at all lead times. However, WoFS is biased moister with steeper lapse rates compared to observations during the forecast. Both CAPE and, to a lesser extent, 0–3‐km CAPE distributions are narrower in WoFS than in radiosondes, with an underestimation of higher CAPE values. Together, these results suggest that WoFS may have utility for forecasting convective‐scale environments in landfalling TCs with lead times of several hours.

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“…Bencana adalah suatu kejadian yang mengakibatkan kerugian dan kerusakan secara material maupun material. Puting beliung juga menimbulkan ancaman fatal, sulitnya rencana evakuasi dan tindakan perlindungan [4]. Bencana angin puting beliung di Desa Demakijo mengakibatkan beberapa kerusakan pada bangunan [5].…”

Section: Pendahuluanunclassified

Pembuatan sistem peringatan dini angin puting beliung di Desa Demakijo, Kecamatan Karangnongko, Kabupaten Klaten

Ida Nugroho Saputro,

Fiqyh Aleeza Wakid,

Silvia Sari Dewi

2024

bemas

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Angin puting beliung merupakan angin yang besar dan merusakan jalur yang dilalui. Banyak daerah yang rusak akibat dari kurangnya antisipasi dalam bahaya angin puting beliung. Bencana puting beliung memberikan sumbangan yang besar terhadap semua bencana yang da di Indonesia. Hampir semua daerah mengalami bencana puting beliung. Sistem peringatan dini diperlukan untuk memberikan kegiatan pemberitahuan kepada masyarakat tentang kemungkinan terjadi bencana pada suatu daerah. Tujuan dari kegiatan ini memberikan pengetahuan dan ketrampilan kepada masyarakat tentang pembuatan sistem peringatan dini pada bencana angin beliung. Pembuatan sistem peringatan dini merupakan salah satu kegiatan pemberdayaan kepada masyarakat melalui UNS yang bertema membentuk Desa Tangguh Bencana (Destana). Pada kegiatan ini melakukan sosilalisasi tentang bahaya bencana alam khususnya puting beliung. kebencanaan. Dilanjutkan dengan pengukuran alat Early Warning System (EWS) atau alat sistem peringatan dini bencana angin puting beliung mempunyai 3 sensor, yaitu sensor kecepatan angin, sensor arah mata angin, dan sensor suhu. Hasil dari kegiatan yang didapatkan pelaksanaan aktivitas ini, masyarakat memahami tentang kebencanaan untuk mendapatkan informasi peringatan dini bencana angin puting beliung sebelum menimbulkan kerugian material dan nonmaterial. Dalam pengukuran Early Warning System atau alat sistem peringatan dini bencana angin puting beliung dibantu oleh tim relawan bencana ARIES Desa Demakijo dan perangkat desa. Sehingga bersama-sama dalam melakukan pengukuran kecepatan angin yang menjadi informasi tentang peringatan dini bencana

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Forecasting tropical cyclone tornadoes and impacts: Report from IWTC-X

Cited by 3 publications

References 40 publications

Multi‐Platform Observations of Severe Typhoon Koinu

Multi‐Platform Observations of Severe Typhoon Koinu

Assessing the Fidelity of Landfalling Tropical Cyclone Convective‐Scale Environments in the Warn‐On‐Forecast System Using Radiosondes

Pembuatan sistem peringatan dini angin puting beliung di Desa Demakijo, Kecamatan Karangnongko, Kabupaten Klaten

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