Forecasting Weibull Parameters With a Novel Alternative Graphical Technique for Low Wind Speeds

Abstract

This paper analyses wind speed estimation for Weibull distribution using various methods. According to a previous study, the existing methods primarily target areas with moderate to high-velocity rates, and Malaysia is a tropical country with pleasant breezes all year. As a result, this research aims to devise the most efficient method of forecasting wind speeds in low-speed areas. The researcher compared existing methods such as the Moment of Method, Empirical Method, Graphical Method, Maximum Likelihood Method and the newly proposed Alternative Graphical method. The finding indicates that the novel proposed approach, the Alternative Graphical Method, is superior regarding Goodness of Fit, Kolmogorov Smirnov and Chi-Square. For Kolmogorov Smirnov, the Alternative Graphical Method is 3.4 % better than the second-best method. At the same time, the usage of Chi-Square is again at a top position, with a 61 % disparity between it and the second and third best places. However, the Alternative Graphical Method is in second place for Anderson Darling, but the forecast performance with a minimum difference of 0.3 %. These findings imply that the Alternative Graphical Method capable of making more precise predictions than current methods.