Forecasting Worldwide Temperature from Amazon Rainforest Deforestation Using a Long-Short Term Memory Model

Abstract

Biosphere–atmosphere interactions are a critical component of the Earth’s climate system. Many of these interactions are currently contributing to temperature increases and accelerating global warming. One of the main factors responsible for this is land use and land cover changes; in particular, this work models the interaction between Amazon rainforest deforestation and global temperatures. A Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) neural network is proposed to forecast temperature trends, including mean, average minimum, and average maximum temperatures, in 20 major cities worldwide. The Amazon rainforest, often referred to as the Earth’s “lungs”, plays a pivotal role in regulating global climate patterns. Over the past two decades, this region has experienced significant deforestation, largely due to human activities. We hypothesize that the extent of deforestation in the Amazon can serve as a valuable proxy for understanding and predicting temperature changes in distant urban centers. Using a dataset that tracks cumulative deforestation from 2001 to 2021 across 297 municipalities in the Amazon rainforest, a multivariate time series model was developed to forecast temperature trends worldwide up to 2030. The input data reveal a variety of behaviors, including complex deforestation patterns. Similarly, the forecasted temperature data showcases diverse trends. While some cities are expected to exhibit a steady temperature increase, others may experience gradual changes, while some cities may undergo drastic and rapid temperature shifts. Our findings contribute to a deeper understanding of the far-reaching impacts of deforestation on global climate patterns and underscore the importance of preserving vital ecosystems like the Amazon rainforest.