Forensic PSHA: Benchmarking Canada’s Fifth Generation seismic hazard model using the OpenQuake-engine

Allen, Trevor I.; Halchuk, S; Adams, John; Weatherill, Graeme

doi:10.1177/8755293019900779

Cited by 11 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…For SSMs with epistemic uncertainty, a collapsed SSM provides the weighted averages of the incremental occurrence rates of sources that appear in numerous logic tree branches, thus reducing the calculation complexity. Allen et al (2020b, this issue) further explains this aspect of the implementation of Canada’s 5th Generation national seismic hazard model into the OpenQuake Engine.…”

Section: A Summary Of the Main Characteristics Of Models In The Mosaicmentioning

confidence: 98%

“…The SSC is organized into four quadrants: two covering the eastern and western Arctic regions, one covering British Columbia and part of the West, and one covering Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada. The 2015 Canada model is, to our knowledge, the first national hazard model accounting for GMM epistemic uncertainty via a suite of referenced backbone GMMs (Allen et al, 2020b; Atkinson and Adams, 2013).…”

Section: The Components Of the Mosaic And Their General Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The 2018 version of the Global Earthquake Model: Hazard component

et al. 2020

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In December 2018, at the conclusion of its second implementation phase, the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation released its first version of a map outlining the spatial distribution of seismic hazard at a global scale. The map is the result of an extensive, joint effort combining the results obtained from a collection of probabilistic seismic hazard models, called the GEM Mosaic. Together, the map and the underlying database of models provide an up-to-date view of the earthquake threat globally. In addition, using the Mosaic, a synopsis of the current state-of-practice in modeling probabilistic seismic hazard at national and regional scales is possible. The process adopted for the compilation of the Mosaic adhered to the maximum extent possible to GEM’s principles of collaboration, inclusiveness, transparency, and reproducibility. For each region, priority was given to seismic hazard models either developed by well-recognized national agencies or by large collaborative projects involving local scientists. The version of the GEM Mosaic presented herein contains 30 probabilistic seismic hazard models, 14 of which represent national or sub-national models; the remainder are regional-scale models. We discuss the general qualities of these models, the underlying framework of the database, and the outlook for the Mosaic’s utility and its future versions.

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Section: A Summary Of the Main Characteristics Of Models In The Mosaicmentioning

confidence: 98%

Section: The Components Of the Mosaic And Their General Characteristicsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The 2018 version of the Global Earthquake Model: Hazard component

et al. 2020

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…Seismic hazard parameters are first calculated for the return period of 2475 years at a reference site condition (site class C) using SHM5 and SHM6. Both models are extensively described in [29][30][31] for SHM5 and in [7,8] for SHM6. As shown in the uniform hazard spectra in Figure 2, PGA and spectral acceleration increase at all periods.…”

Section: Seismic Hazard Modelsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Influence of the 2020 Seismic Hazard Update on Residential Losses in Greater Montreal, Canada

Rosset,

Long,

Chouinard

2023

GeoHazards

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Greater Montreal is situated in a region with moderate seismic activity and rests on soft ground deposits from the ancient Champlain Sea, as well as more recent alluvial deposits from the Saint Lawrence River. These deposits have the potential to amplify seismic waves, as demonstrated by past strong, and recent weak, earthquakes. Studies based on the 2015 National Seismic Hazard Model (SHM5) had estimated losses to residential buildings at 2% of their value for an event with a return period of 2475 years. In 2020, the seismic hazard model was updated (SHM6), resulting in more severe hazards for eastern Canada. This paper aims to quantify the impact of these changes on losses to residential buildings in Greater Montreal. Our exposure database includes population and buildings at the scale of dissemination areas (500–1000 inhabitants). Buildings are classified by occupancy and construction type and grouped into three building code levels based on year of construction. The value of buildings is obtained from property-valuation rolls and the content value is derived from insurance data. Damage and losses are calculated using Hazus software developed for FEMA. Losses are shown to be 53% higher than the SHM5 estimates.

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“…We set this distance to an, in our eyes, conservative level of 800km. For Canada, we indicate a maximum distance per tectonic region type, as described in [34].…”

Section: Appendixmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Global Study of the Risk of Earthquakes to IXPs

Oostenbrink

Kuipers

2022

2022 IFIP Networking Conference (IFIP Networking)

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In this paper, we study the risk of earthquakes to global Internet infrastructure, namely Internet eXchange Point (IXP) facilities. Leveraging the CAIDA IXPs dataset and publicly available earthquake models and hazard computation tools, we find that more than 50% of the facilities have at least a 2% probability of experiencing potentially damaging levels of shaking, due to earthquakes, within a period of 50 years. Furthermore, we estimate that there is a 10% probability that at least 20 facilities will simultaneously experience potentially damaging levels of shaking within a period of 50 years. Fortunately, our analysis shows that IXPs that host many Autonomous Systems (ASes) tend to be located in less earthquake-prone areas, and that spreading out over multiple facilities significantly reduces the impact of earthquakes to IXPs. Following this observation, we propose a novel metric to help AS operators select peering facilities based on the probability of simultaneous facility failures. We show that applying our metric can significantly increase the resilience of individual ASes, as well as that of the Internet as a whole.

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Forensic PSHA: Benchmarking Canada’s Fifth Generation seismic hazard model using the OpenQuake-engine

Cited by 11 publications

References 34 publications

The 2018 version of the Global Earthquake Model: Hazard component

The 2018 version of the Global Earthquake Model: Hazard component

Influence of the 2020 Seismic Hazard Update on Residential Losses in Greater Montreal, Canada

A Global Study of the Risk of Earthquakes to IXPs

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